Some Dutch households face up to €70 a month in extra costs by 2030 under a new EU scheme that will raise prices on CO₂ from gas, petrol and diesel from 2028, the government environmental assessment agency PBL said on Monday.
The scheme, known as ETS2, runs parallel to the existing EU carbon market for heavy industry. Its price will be set on European-wide demand levels, leaving The Hague with limited influence.
PBL modelled two 2030 scenarios. A small flat with a gas boiler and 6,000km of annual petrol driving would pay €10 to €20 extra a month; a large detached house and 20,000km would pay €30 to €70.
Households that have already switched to a heat pump and an electric car would avoid the extra cost entirely, the agency said.
Renters most exposed
The split risks deepening energy and transport poverty, PBL warned, because the households least able to absorb the cost are also least able to escape it.
Renters depend on landlords for insulation and heat pumps, and people who cannot afford electric vehicles are dependent on petrol.
Around 6.1% of Dutch households were already living in energy poverty in 2024, according to research institute TNO and statistics office CBS, after pandemic-era compensation expired. PBL director Marko Hekkert said the recent energy price shocks had already shown how high prices push specific groups into energy poverty.
Compensation options
PBL pointed to Germany, Austria and Switzerland, where comparable national CO₂ charges are offset by a flat per-capita rebate that leaves the price signal intact but tilts the gain to lower-income households, which tend to use less energy.
A share of ETS2 revenue is also earmarked for a European Social Climate Fund, from which the Netherlands can claim around €720 million between 2026 and 2032.
The agency recommended a binding price corridor – agreed minimum and maximum carbon prices that rise annually – to give households and businesses more investment certainty.
EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra has separately been working on a “shock absorber” mechanism after a group of member states, including the Netherlands, warned that the launch price could destabilise public support.
The report was drafted before the Iran war and the spring spike in energy prices, PBL noted. Decisions on whether and how to compensate households, and where to spend ETS2 revenues, will be made by the cabinet.
