It seems that the outgoing government took into account the euphoria caused by their departure when putting together the budget. At least this was fulfilled in the service of the homeland.
Zsolt Balásy, portfolio manager of HOLD Fund Management and MON After Hours its host writes in the upcoming HVG360 “Capitalism with Balásy” newsletter.
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This is the newsletter first on April 22, 2026 appeared.
In recent weeks, the exchange rate of the euro has fluctuated between HUF 358 and HUF 400. It produced movement in days that previously took years. What’s here? There are two things here: a (potential) global energy crisis and a (potential) Hungarian economic rise with the replacement of Fidesz. And between these two narratives, the traders of the world, including me, were running around.
One process weakens the forint, while the other strengthens it, and since the forint is now at a multi-year high, I don’t have to be so magical when I say: according to the capital markets, Fidesz is a bigger disaster for the Hungarian economy than an energy crisis. In the Bible, they would say this: Rather a grasshopper’s walk than NER!
But I won’t elaborate on that now. For years I write about itthat EU membership, trust, the market, the informational role of prices… That is, how harmful it is for short-term political capital sacrifice the future. And in this process, a small question is whether the EU money will come or not. Also, the money itself is the small issue. EU integration and trust are not small issues. Moreover, perhaps the most important. And from this point of view, EU money is an excellent indicator, as it is tangible. So
the forint is not strengthening because of EU money. But because of the European path indicated by the EU funds.
Voter mentality
I’m not used to it, but now: thanks for the system change! Many people have been doing this seemingly hopeless struggle for years, not caring that there are more comfortable and rewarding careers in the service of the party-state. Rather, they kept their spines and did their job.
I will not list them, but one phenomenon struck me even here at the end of the curse: the two thousand people who significantly obstructed Fidesz vote deliveries on election day. Those who stood in front of the polling booths of the “infected” constituencies with mobile phones in their hands, taking on all the trouble and conflicts that come with it. Those who didn’t said that someone would solve it. Let the state solve it! (Yes, of course, the state.) But they got their act together and did their job. Like none of their business.
What is the lesson? When a party can get votes by destroying the economy, the voters are largely on board. Take, for example, the vote-gathering gasoline price cap. How on earth can anyone think that it is the state’s job to solve so that I can go to my workplace as I please, when is our strategic energy storage empty?
There is a shortage of oil in the world, so the price of gasoline goes up by thirty percent? Then either I earn enough so that it doesn’t hurt, or if that doesn’t work, I drive thirty percent less, the little oil can be used for more socially important things. What the example of those two thousand people above conveys is this: it is basically my job to solve the problems, not the state’s. And then Hungary will be a better place.
But it is not easy to replace the voters, nor is it even easy to teach them to take responsibility. So here is the next seemingly hopeless task after the disruption of the NER.
Government mentality
“Minister”: the original Latin meaning of the word is “servant, helper”. It contains “mini”, i.e. “small”, in contrast to magister, who is the master, the teacher, the boss. Today, the original meaning of the word can be seen in the verb administrál, minister, or the English verb “to minister”, but unfortunately no longer in the words minister, prime minister. Yet Jesus said: “Whoever wants to be great among you must be your servant, and whoever wants to be first among you must be your slave” (Matthew 20:26-27).
A Norwegian tale
Norwegians and Hungarians stand in line for football match tickets in Oslo. The Norwegian points to someone in line:
“Look, there’s the king of Norway!”
“Why is the Norwegian king standing in line?” – the Hungarian is confused.
“You must not have a ticket,” the Norwegian is puzzled.
I liken the task of the government to that of the common representative. Collect (try not to steal) the common cost; don’t think it’s his; and, if necessary, wash the corridor. You don’t need a messiah, you don’t need to solve the economic problems of the house sixty years in advance. Don’t barge into an apartment to explain who’s the man and who’s the woman, just because some of the residents on the ground floor applaud it.
Do not finance businesses! Leaving aside the janitor image: businesses must be helped with good education, a railway network and a simple tax system. This is the mentality I recommend to the new government. Don’t let them think that my money is their money! They just take care of him. But if I’ve preached so far that I shouldn’t expect others to make Hungary a better place, then here it is:
I announce the movement presenting to the political convoy. I’ve been practicing for a couple of decades.
When even one, or rather five, black cars drive by with traffic lights on, pretending to be important people sitting in them, it is the civic duty of every spineless onlooker to show his displeasure by raising his middle finger: haha, the servant does not close the city to himself, but drives around on the back stairs so as not to disturb anyone!
Suppose that if all politicians in history had traveled by bus, they would have been able to deal with ten percent fewer CASES. This means that this country would be ten percent further inland. At least ten percent.
The monopoly
We don’t like monopolies, even though they could be efficient in principle. On the one hand, we are afraid that they will slow down and perform poorly over time, since they are not forced to compete. On the other hand, because they abuse their monopoly power. If a highway is built between Budapest and Lake Balaton, since it would be more of a waste, then the owner can in principle charge any amount as a fee for its use.
Unless there are checks and balances, for example in the framework of official pricing (permitted in the case of a monopoly!). Hungary had a political monopoly for sixteen years after the previous forty, all checks and balances were removed, and those who knew, abused their monopoly power without restraint. They also got lazy and gave poor performance.
I think that Fidesz proved all the points of the economics textbooks about the dangers of monopoly.
It is therefore important that the next government abolishes this. Competition is NEEDED, because just as market players are forced by market competition, political players are forced by political competition to perform as well as possible. A necessary, but probably not sufficient, way to do this is to eliminate the winner’s compensation, because since it has been in place, only two-thirds have come.
Conviction
I also went to a psychiatrist because of NER. I even wanted to flee the country in 2011, I have one hundred and fifty CVs all over the world. I also think that many people should be sent to prison, even if the letter of the law was followed. Still. If the function of remembering sins is revenge, then we are dealing with emotions again. It’s harmful. If the function of memory is to make many sins less likely to be repeated later, then it is ratio. It takes you forward.
I don’t know which direction leads whom, I can only guess. And I don’t even know if remembering helps against the commission of sins, or if it just makes it worse. I suspect no one else knows. And that’s why I’m worried. Because I know two things. On the one hand, the main problem of this country and of the last 16 years is incitement and incitement. The fact that one side sees the other as an enemy. And because of this, any means is allowed to maintain power. After all, you keep the enemy out.
On the other hand, usually everyone and always is guided by their emotions. Hate is popular, and it swings the pendulum into increasingly disgusting and unlivable regions. That is, I am very afraid that remembering for emotional reasons (revenge!) can only be good by chance. The point is not to follow emotions. Of course it won’t work.
Irish tale
“Catherine will be a president for all of us and she will be my president and I really would like to wish her all the very, very best.” This the losing Irish presidential candidate said about the winner after their election last fall. I think Ireland works much better than ours.
Happy Ending
Let’s not forget what the HUF market is saying! A significant part of economics is psychology. Joy and optimism can do a lot for him. Perhaps the country, especially the part of it that is able to consume, has not been this happy and optimistic since the end of the Second World War. With the potential return of foreign and domestic confidence, a lot of money can flow into the country.
In addition, people now even have money because of the increase in real wages used as an election trick in recent years and the handouts that put the budget in a difficult situation. In 2019, at the end of the last boom, the budget’s revenue was HUF 1,000 billion more than planned, only because the growth and tax revenue were unexpectedly high.
A similar positive surprise would now result in an extra income of HUF 1,800 billion, which is two percent of GDP. I looked at what growth was planned when the 2026 budget was drawn up. The real GDP growth is 2-3%, the nominal is almost 8%. It will be difficult to significantly overcome this, it requires a positive shock to achieve it.
It seems that the outgoing government took into account the euphoria caused by their departure when putting together the budget. At least this was fulfilled in the service of the homeland.
So what will happen? It will be good. Because even if it won’t be good, it will be much better.
Cover image: Constituent session of the Hungarian Parliament. Source: Getty
Zsolt Balásythe other writings and reviews of HOLD’s portfolio manager you can browse here on HOLDBLOG.
This is an opinion article that does not necessarily reflect the position of HOLD Fund Management and the editorial staff of HOLDBLOG.
