The population of Tajikistan is growing rapidly. And this process is not consistent with the growth in productivity in such areas as industry, construction and agriculture. Meanwhile, arable land per capita fell to 0.5 hectares.
Let’s look at how Tajikistan wants to turn the problem of overpopulation into an opportunity for prosperity.
Is population growth an opportunity for prosperity?
According to UN estimates, by 2050 the population of Central Asia will exceed 100 million people, including the population of Tajikistan will reach 14.5 million.
The government of Tajikistan is optimistic about population growth, and this phenomenon is called the “demographic window of opportunity.”
The National Development Strategy for the period up to 2030 states that the expected growth in the working-age population in the republic presents opportunities for accelerating economic growth. The bulk of the population (about 60%) will be people of working age (from 15 to 64 years), which will become the engine of economic growth.
The “demographic window” will have a beneficial impact both on the socio-economic development of the country as a whole and on the level of people’s well-being. Since the country’s population is growing at a high rate, production growth must also be high in order to prevent a decline in the quality of life.
This problem cannot be solved on the basis of traditional, inefficient management methods. It becomes necessary to accelerate urbanization, large-scale housing construction, and accelerated growth of investments in communal, social and road infrastructure.
The main thing is that the rate of growth of food production, or GDP, constantly exceeds the rate of population growth.
How many people can the land of Tajikistan feed?
Land, water and natural resources in Tajikistan are limited, and their quantity is decreasing every year. Will the economy be able to support the population under such conditions?
Excessive population growth, according to some foreign experts, leads to mass unemployment and limitation of food, land, water and other resources.
But domestic experts do not agree with them. According to them, the rate of population growth in itself is not a reason for such conclusions.
Chairman of the State Committee for Land Management and Geodesy Orif Khojazoda previously stated that the land of Tajikistan is capable of feeding a population of 50 million people. According to him, today there are enough land resources to fully ensure the country’s food security, despite the fact that the country has approximately 0.6 hectares of irrigated land per capita.
Of course, this is only possible with the rational use of land and water resources.
Dependency ratio
The sum of the loads of children and the elderly forms the total demographic load. The dependency ratio directly reflects financial expenditures on social policy in the state. For example, if this coefficient increases, expenses for the construction of educational institutions, social protection, healthcare, pension payments, etc. should be increased.
Transition to a new demographic stage
According to a study by the demography department of the Institute of Economics and Demography of the National Academy of Sciences, in 2017 respondents mostly had 2-4 children (64.8%), while in 2012 the majority of respondents had 4-7 children (87.4%).
Thus, in recent years in Tajikistan there has been a process of focusing on small families, while the proportion of families with three children in the study group was the largest.
The active growth of the population of Tajikistan in the years after independence was also due to the fact that the majority of the population lives in rural areas and leads a rural lifestyle. Rural families need workers to work in the fields, so having 4-5 children in families is a necessity.
However, in subsequent years, with the development of new technologies and Tajikistan’s transition to an industrial path of development, the situation will change radically.
Candidate of Economic Sciences Akbar Subkhonov considers the demographic situation optimal.
“To solve problems, we need to take control of three things: improve the quality of education, fairly distribute land among all its users, and, of course, develop production using new technologies,” he says.
In this case, according to scientists, the current population growth in Tajikistan will not be uncontrolled. And as the economy develops and the population’s well-being increases, the current demographic problems will disappear. In return, a new modern type of demography will come, which is characteristic of developed countries.
Meanwhile…
Demographic growth in all Central Asian countries today is welcomed, and no one controls the birth rate.
According to experts of the Eurasian Development Bankdemographic growth will contribute to the development of the economies of the Central Asian states.
The growing population of the region creates a capacious sales market and a growing pool of labor resources.
Demographer from Uzbekistan, Doctor of Sociological Sciences Azamat Seitov believesthat with skillful regulation and greater attention to human capital, human resources are one of the opportunities for further growth of countries’ economies.
“Birth control is pointless. And the state does not need to do this,” he believes.
By opinion Chairman of the Senate of the Parliament of Kazakhstan Maulen Ashimbaev, his country, without population growth to 30-40 million in the coming decade, will be very difficult to develop a large territory. Therefore, increasing the country’s population to 40 million is a strategic issue.
