Bangkok/The month of April tests the energy security of Asia, which is very vulnerable to the supply crisis as a result of the blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. While China or Japan still have reserves for months, Southeast Asia is exhausting its supplies in these weeks, and India is lagging behind.
The obstruction to transit through Hormuz, which channels around 20% of the world’s crude oil in peacetime, has drastically reduced the volume of oil leaving the Middle East, raising its price to almost highs of about 120 dollars per barrel since the start of the Iran war and mainly affecting Asia, the main destination for shipments.
According to a Kpler report sent to EFE, the flow of crude oil in circulation from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific has fallen to 13.5 million barrels today, compared to the usual average of 110 million before the outbreak of the war. The figures exclude crude oil from the Persian country.
The decrease in available volume has forced suppliers to diversify, with Iran and Russia among the main beneficiaries.
The decrease in available volume has forced suppliers to diversify, with Iran and Russia among the main beneficiaries
Kpler anticipates that “April poses the real test for Asia” as pre-war oil shipments from the Middle East begin to run out.
Southeast Asia stands as one of the most vulnerable regions. Countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand have reserves to cover about three weeks of demand, indicates a report by Muyu Xu, senior commodities analyst at Kpler.
The shortage subjects nations to a growing “urgency to secure shipments” and the “most likely” options point to barrels from Russia and Iran, highlights the report, prepared from data prior to the expiration last Saturday of the easing of US sanctions on Russian crude oil.
The analyst assures that Russian hydrocarbons, also sanctioned by the European Union, are “the most readily available alternative” for Asian refineries, but warns that “the limited marketable volumes are unlikely to reverse the supply shortage.”
Xu’s report places India’s level of reserves in line with that of the most exposed countries in Southeast Asia, although New Delhi continued buying Russian crude oil after the start of the offensive in Ukraine and resumed purchasing Iranian crude oil this month for the first time since 2019.
India, which announced on March 26 that it had reserves for two months, has continued to import and in principle has more financial muscle than the Southeast Asian nations to reinforce supplies, with gas as its weakest point.
The Philippines, whose Government stated on April 10 that it had reserves for about 50 days – above what was estimated by Kpler – is one of the hardest hit countries and has been in a state of energy emergency for more than three weeks.
The company that operates the country’s only refinery, Petron, recently agreed to purchase 2.48 million barrels of Russian crude oil, and the authorities have announced that they are seeking the support of Washington – Manila’s partner – for additional purchases.
Indonesia has also found energy support in the Kremlin: its Government stated this Tuesday that it will be able to increase its crude oil reserves after the meeting between President Prabowo Subianto and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in turn stated this Wednesday during a visit to Beijing that his country can compensate for the “energy shortage” of China and other nations.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in turn stated this Wednesday during a visit to Beijing that his country can compensate for the “energy shortage” of China and other nations.
China, a partner of Tehran and Moscow, the main buyer of Iranian oil and one of the few that continued to purchase Russian crude oil after the start of the Ukrainian war, has managed to keep its fuel imports from the Middle East relatively stable.
According to Kpler, the Asian giant imported 10.2 million barrels per day in March, below the 11.5 million in February, although in line with the 2025 average of 10.4 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, crude oil arrivals to South Korea and Japan fell to their lowest levels since 2024, according to the consultancy.
Japan, which imports about 90% of its oil from the Middle East and has already released part of its strategic reserves, has seen its crude oil inventory fall to minimum levels since Kpler (2017) records began.
The consultancy estimates that Tokyo has supplies for at least four months, and places Seoul’s inventory slightly above Bangkok’s level.
