Worst of beef price hikes may be over, but don’t expect cheaper steak anytime soon

After years of soaring beef prices, Canadians may finally be getting a break from steep price increases when buying their favourite cut of steak or roast at the grocery store.

Beef prices rose 8.7 per cent in September compared with a year earlier and have climbed 55.5 per cent over the past five years, according to Statistics Canada.

Prices remain at record highs, but industry experts say there are signs of stability, with grocery store price tags remaining relatively flat for much of 2026. 

“The worst of the price jumps I would say are over,” said Brenna Grant, executive director of Calgary-based beef statistics firm Canfax.

“We’ve had some really big price jumps in the last four years and any change going forward is going to be more moderate.”

Brenna Grant, executive director of Canfax, says the worst of the beef price spikes may be over, but Canadians shouldn’t expect prices to drop significantly. (Ina Sidhu/CBC)

Cattle supplies growing

Canada’s cattle herd is growing after years of declining numbers.

Statistics Canada reported 12.1 million cattle and calves on Canadian farms as of July 1, 2026, up 3.2 per cent from a year earlier, the largest annual increase since 2004. 

The industry has struggled with years of drought in Western Canada and the U.S. Midwest, rising feed costs and shrinking herds.

In southern Alberta, rancher Michael Munton is seeing a shift.

Munton operates Benchmark Angus near Warner, Alta., as well as a processing facility in Picture Butte, Alta. 

“This summer prices were the highest that anyone has ever seen in the beef market and we’re starting to see that come down,” he said.

Munton said ranchers are working to expand their herds but face factors beyond their control.

“All of it is contingent on weather providing that we have good moisture this winter and in the spring, then we should be able to see some stability in that market,” Munton said.

He said dry conditions could force producers to sell cattle and set back the recovery. 

Cattle stand in a feedlot in southern Alberta. Canada’s cattle herd is growing after years of declining numbers, but experts warn it could take time before consumers see price relief at the grocery store. (Ina Sidhu/CBC)

Why beef could stay expensive in 2027

Experts say consumers shouldn’t expect a significant drop in prices at the meat counter.

Kevin Grier, a livestock market analyst based in Guelph, Ont., said North American beef supplies remain tight, while demand has held up despite record prices.

“The only so-called hope of getting lower prices is if all of a sudden Canadian consumers decide that they don’t want beef and then therefore the demand declines,” he said.

Grier cautioned that North American cattle supplies could become even tighter in 2027 as ranchers hold back breeding animals. That means fewer cattle going to slaughter in the short term, even as producers work to increase supply over the longer term. 

Whether that pushes beef prices up will depend on consumer demand, he said.

Stephen Deere is the owner of Modern Steak in Calgary. He says soaring beef prices are putting pressure on restaurant margins and changing how some customers order, with some opting to skip an appetizer or side dish to enjoy their favourite steak. (Ina Sidhu/CBC)

That appetite for beef is also holding up at restaurants.

At Modern Steak in Calgary, owner Stephen Deere said high beef prices are squeezing profits and have forced him to raise menu prices by as much as 10 per cent this year.

“No one wants to do it, it’s the last resort,” he said. “At the end of the day when you’re a prime-grade steakhouse, it’s prime-grade beef. There is no substitution for that.”

Deere said diners aren’t necessarily giving up their favourite steaks but finding other ways to keep bills down.

“I don’t see too many people downsizing their regular order. Meaning if I order a rib eye I’m still ordering a rib eye,” said Deere. 

“What they’re doing is they might have one less appetizer, one less side or one less drink.”

Are high beef prices the new normal?

Michael Munton is the owner and operator of Benchmark Angus in southern Alberta. He says Canadian cattle herds are expanding after years of drought — but continued growth will depend on favourable weather conditions for grazing land. (Ina Sidhu/CBC News)

Even as cattle supplies recover, experts say beef prices are unlikely to return to what Canadians paid several years ago.

For ranchers, the economics of producing beef have changed dramatically.

“The cost of the infrastructure, the cost of the machinery, the cost of the equipment is astronomical. And the margins that we live on are very, very slim,” Munton said. 

Those rising costs extend throughout the entire supply chain, including fuel and transportation, according to Grant, and have changed the economics of producing beef.

“It’s very rare that you actually see those retail prices come down in any significant way,” Grant said.

“Any relief would be very modest and it may be on only some cuts.”