This morning, we have the first New York Times/Siena poll of a Senate race this year and it’s in Maine, where the Democrat Graham Platner narrowly leads the incumbent, Susan Collins, by two percentage points, 49-47, among likely voters. You can read the full story here on the poll, which was done in conjunction with The Portland Press Herald.
On paper, this race has all the makings of a marquee matchup. A Republican political juggernaut is seeking re-election for the fifth time. Her opponent is a charismatic candidate with weaknesses some might see as disqualifying. And the contest is taking place in a challenging state and tough environment for Republicans. The narratives are straightforward and compelling.
But the poll shows that none of those narratives are as solid as they might appear. The poll does meet the expectation of a close race, with Ms. Collins, not surprisingly, highly competitive in a reliably Democratic state once again. But while Ms. Collins remains resilient despite Maine’s partisan tilt, she doesn’t look like a juggernaut. Mr. Platner, while weak for a Democrat, is far from disqualified. And Maine itself may not be as supportive of Democrats as one might expect in this political environment.
Let’s go through these one by one.
How strong is Susan Collins?
A three-decade incumbent, she’s popular for a Republican in a blue state, but is she actually popular? Not exactly. Only 48 percent of likely voters give her a favorable rating, compared with 50 percent who say they have an unfavorable view.
There’s a case that her rating may understate her strengths. She fares well on nearly every question asked, including her character and ability to deliver for Maine. A clear majority of voters in this reliably Democratic presidential state say she’s “not too far either way” on the issues.
There’s only one pronounced weakness: 54 percent say she would support President Trump too much.
How weak is Graham Platner?
Mr. Platner, an oyster farmer in his first campaign, fared well in the Democratic primary. But there’s no doubt that various controversies — including his now-covered tattoo of a Nazi symbol and texts he’s sent to other women while married — have taken a toll on his standing.
Overall, just 45 percent have a favorable opinion of him, compared with 50 percent who have an unfavorable view.
That’s nothing to brag about — and it’s even worse when judged against Maine’s Democratic lean — but it’s not exactly disastrous. In fact, more voters have an unfavorable view of Janet Mills, the state’s Democratic governor, whom Mr. Platner easily brushed aside in the Senate primary.
As with Ms. Collins’s strengths, there’s a case that Mr. Platner’s weaknesses run a lot deeper than one might guess from his overall favorability rating. A clear majority of registered voters — including 29 percent of his own supporters — say all the controversies make them question whether they can support him. We haven’t asked a poll question like this before, but it’s probably pretty unusual for such a large share of a candidate’s backers to question their support.
On the other hand, perhaps it’s a real show of strength that so many of those same voters still say they have a favorable view of him. His supporters may understandably be questioning what they think of him, but many are still on his side.
How blue is Maine in 2026?
Of the six Republican-held Senate seats that Democrats are primarily targeting this year, Maine is clearly the most Democratic. It’s the only one of the six that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, and it hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate in nearly 40 years.
The poll certainly suggests that Maine is a really tough state for Republicans this year. Mr. Trump’s national approval ratings are awful, and voters favor Democrats in the race for Congress. Mr. Platner could have room to improve if voters wind up focusing on Maine’s key role in deciding Senate control.
But at least in this poll, there were a surprising number of signs that the political environment isn’t quite as challenging for Republicans as one might have guessed. Mr. Trump’s approval rating, for instance, is at 38 percent — that’s actually a tick higher than his approval rating nationwide in our last poll, even though the state is more Democratic than the country. Similarly, the Democratic lead on the so-called generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they’ll support for Congress, was just 11 points. That’s no better than the result in the last national Times/Siena poll.
The poll also contained a hint that a meaningful share of Democratic-leaning voters may not be quite so committed to unconditionally opposing Mr. Trump whenever or wherever they can. Maybe that was already obvious from so many being willing to support Ms. Collins, but this finding is still surprising: 55 percent of voters say Mr. Platner would oppose Mr. Trump too much, and only 40 percent say he would be “about right.”
There’s one other factor to consider when judging the political environment in Maine: This is a poll of the likely midterm electorate, and in this poll the likely electorate is more Democratic-leaning than the broader pool of registered voters. Ms. Collins would actually lead our poll if it measured the 2024 presidential electorate. The poll’s expectation of a relatively Democratic-leaning turnout in November seems a reasonable assumption.
In recent years, Democrats have enjoyed a turnout advantage in lower-turnout elections, and historically the party out of power enjoys a turnout edge in midterm elections. For good measure, voters who said they backed Ms. Harris were more likely to tell us that they were “almost certain” to vote or “enthusiastic” about voting.
But the less-than-overwhelming Democratic advantage in Maine looks even less impressive in a survey with a likely electorate that’s more Democratic-leaning than usual.
A postscript
This poll adopts substantial changes in weighting methods, as explained in an article this morning. The poll’s methodology statement — at the bottom of the cross-tabs of today’s results — includes more detailed information.
How much did these changes move the results of this poll? Perhaps surprisingly, it made no difference: The result would have been Platner +2 either way. That won’t be the case in some other polls this week.
