The world economy will be affected this year by the war in the Middle East, according to the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published on Tuesday, which forecast growth of 3.1%, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points.
The United States will be less affected by the conflict that it unleashed with Israel with bombings on Iran on February 28. The growth of its economy is now estimated by the institution at 2.3% in 2026, 0.1 percentage points less than expected in the previous publication in January.
“Our baseline forecasts are based on a relatively short conflict, with a temporary disruption of the energy market that would disappear next year,” stressed Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist of the IMF, in statements to AFP.
But “before the war we were preparing to revise our forecasts upwards to 3.4%,” he stressed.
“Every day that passes and every day that we have more energy disturbances, we are sliding towards the most adverse situation,” Gourinchas added at a press conference.
– Unequal impact –
If the conflict were to drag on, the impact could be enormous: the worst scenario contemplates growth of 2%, a drop reminiscent of episodes of contraction such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic.
The sharp rise in oil prices should push inflation upwards, when until now it continued to moderate, to reach an average of 4.4% worldwide, that is, 0.6 points more than the IMF forecast in January.
If the conflict is resolved at the negotiating table, “there should be a slight increase in core inflation, excluding food and energy, but it should not be prolonged, and prices should resume their deceleration trajectory in 2027,” anticipated the Fund’s chief economist.
The impact of the conflict, both in terms of loss of growth and increase in prices, is distributed unevenly in the world: prices should increase more strongly in emerging or developing countries than in advanced economies, where they should return closer to 2% more quickly in 2027.
“The impact on emerging markets and developing economies will be double that of advanced economies,” the Fund considers in its report.
Not surprisingly, the Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia region is the most affected.
Saudi Arabia, the region’s main economy, sees its growth revised to 3.1% for this year, 1.4 points less than the IMF’s previous estimate, before experiencing an a priori expansion in 2027.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the outlook remains even slightly upward (+0.1 percentage points), with an increase of 2.3%.
– Emerging economies resist, advanced economies less so –
Among other emerging or developing countries, the impact should be uneven, with a downward revision of growth more pronounced in sub-Saharan Africa or Central and Eastern Europe than in the Asian continent, for example.
The impact should be minimal, or even non-existent, for the main emerging economies: China would lose just 0.1 points of growth this year, to 4.4%, while India sees its growth revised upwards by 0.1 points, to 6.5%, and Brazil by 0.3 points, to 1.9%.
Another possible beneficiary is Russia, whose growth should be 1.1% this year, compared to 0.8% in the previous estimate.
For Moscow, the rise in oil prices is “good news in terms of export income. It is one of the main reasons that has led us to revise upward our growth projection for Russia,” explained the IMF chief economist.
The euro zone sees its growth revised downwards by 0.2 points, to the 1.1% now forecast, but with an impact that will be different from one country to another.
Spain loses 0.2 percentage points on the previous estimate, to reach a 2.1% increase in GDP (1.8% in 2027).
Germany will only grow by 0.8% and France by 0.9%.
