Taipei
Over Taiwan’s Qingming holiday weekend, as families cleaned ancestral graves and crowded around dinner tables, a familiar debate has resurfaced: should this island democracy rely more heavily on the United States for its security or try to reduce tensions by engaging with China?
For some, the war in Iran has raised urgent questions about how much attention the US can sustain if multiple crises unfold at once. Delays in arms deliveries, depletion of weapon stockpiles and President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to allies and partners all reinforce those doubts.
That debate is sharpening this week as Cheng Li-wun, the firebrand chair of Taiwan’s main opposition party, the Kuomintang, or KMT, heads to China on a six-day trip that could include a landmark meeting with leader Xi Jinping in Beijing.
If Cheng meets Xi — who invited her as the head of the Chinese Communist Party — it would be the first official encounter between a sitting KMT chair and China’s top leader in a decade. It would also come ahead of Trump’s summit with Xi in May, where Taiwan is expected to be high on the agenda.
Cheng has framed her visit as a peace-making trip, proclaiming that it is a first step to reduce tensions between Taipei and Beijing, which has vowed one day to take control of Taiwan, by force if necessary.
“War is not destined across the strait,” Cheng said. “We hope the visit ushers cross-strait relations into a gentle and warm spring.”
Her visit comes as pressure on Taiwan from both Washington and Beijing ramps up. On the same day Beijing publicly extended an invitation to Cheng, a bipartisan group of US senators landed in Taipei to urge Taiwanese lawmakers to pass President Lai Ching-te’s stalled $40 billion defense plan, echoing the Trump administration’s message that peace comes through strength.
“It’s crucial that all parties in Taiwan come together to improve robust supplementary defense spending,” Senator Jeanne Shaheen said.
Senator John Curtis said he needed to be able to show colleagues that Taiwan was carrying its weight.
Cheng’s visit also comes as the war in Iran reshapes how Taiwan’s security is being discussed.
A prolonged US military campaign in the Middle East could “lessen the pressure that China is likely to face in the Indo-Pacific” as Washington diverts attention, resources and ammunition to another conflict, William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told CNN.
That, in turn, could leave Taiwan more exposed to sustained military and political pressure from Beijing.
Taiwan has already committed tens of billions of dollars to US weapons systems, including fighter jets and missiles. Some of those systems were approved years ago but have not yet been delivered. That backlog has become a go-to argument for opposition lawmakers who question why additional spending is being pushed before existing orders arrive.
The dispute has stalled President Lai’s defense plan in an opposition-controlled legislature. It has also exposed divisions within the KMT. Some party figures support higher defense spending to reassure Washington. Others want a smaller package with more transparency and oversight, warning against tying Taiwan too closely to US expectations without clearer guarantees.
“The juxtaposition between US senators and the upcoming trip to China really demonstrates how the two main political parties are trying to sell their message,” said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University.
For the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), he said, security comes from strengthening ties with the US and investing in deterrence. For the KMT, the argument is that lowering tensions with China reduces the risk that deterrence will ever be tested.
Neither side is proposing a break with either power. The disagreement is about which relationship deserves greater priority.
Beijing’s approach goes beyond rhetoric.
Military aircraft and naval vessels operate near Taiwan on a near-daily basis, part of a sustained effort to exert pressure and test responses. Taiwanese officials also say China is trying to shape opinion on the island, spreading disinformation and amplifying political divisions.
At the same time, Beijing refuses to engage with Taiwan’s ruling party, which has won the presidency in three successive elections.
That’s because the DPP rejects China’s sovereign claim over Taiwan and will not endorse the “1992 consensus,” a framework under which both Beijing and Taipei acknowledge the existence of “one China,” but have different interpretations of what that is. As a result, direct communication at the highest levels has been cut off.
The KMT — which ruled the whole of China before retreating to Taiwan in 1949 following its defeat by the Communist forces — takes a different position. It accepts the 1992 consensus as a basis for dialogue, which is why its leaders can still meet Chinese officials.
For Beijing, that distinction allows China to maintain influence in Taiwan’s politics while isolating the elected government.
That dynamic is not lost on voters. For many, especially younger Taiwanese, Beijing’s promises carry little trust, particularly after the crackdown in Hong Kong, which had been promised a high degree of autonomy from the mainland. Identification as Taiwanese, as opposed to Chinese, has grown stronger in recent years.
For many in Taiwan, it feels like the island is being pulled in opposite directions.
Most Taiwanese take great pride in what their society has achieved in a relatively short period of time. The island only held its first democratic elections in the early 1990s, following decades of martial law under the KMT. Today it produces nearly all the world’s most advanced semiconductors, giving it an outsized role in the global tech supply chain and economy.
But that success comes with intense pressure. Taiwan sits along what military planners call the first island chain, a stretch of territory that runs from Japan through Taiwan and down toward the Philippines, seen by both Beijing and Washington as a critical line of control in the western Pacific.
For China, bringing Taiwan under its dominion would break through that barrier and expand its military reach. For the US and its allies, keeping Taiwan out of Beijing’s hands is central to maintaining the current balance of power in the region.
Public opinion in Taiwan reflects the tension. Support for unification with China remains low. Most Taiwanese favor maintaining the status quo and avoiding conflict.
Since taking over the KMT leadership last year, Cheng has tried to frame the party’s approach as practical. Announcing the visit, she argued that Taiwan should not be pushed into confrontation.
She has also rejected the idea that Taiwan must choose between the United States and China.
“Little children choose,” she said recently. “Taiwan wants it all.”
That argument resonates with some voters who are wary of conflict but skeptical of Beijing. It allows the KMT to frame engagement as the only way to reduce risk, in contrast with the DPP’s policy of heightened military deterrence.
Ahead of her trip, the KMT doubled down on its message to talk peace, posting a photo on its social media with slogans including “peace is the true love of Taiwan” and “provocation won’t bring peace,” veiled swipes at the ruling DPP.
But what Cheng can achieve on her trip remains unknown.
Nachman, the political scientist, says the key point to watch will be how much agency she retains in a visit tightly controlled by Beijing.
Some voters in Taiwan are managing their expectations for Cheng’s visit.
“I think governments on both sides share the responsibility to reduce tensions,” said Ms. Peng, a Taipei resident in her late 50s. “After all, she is the KMT chair. It’s natural she would try to do what she can.”
“I won’t have any particularly high expectations,” said Ms. Chiang, a Taipei resident in her 30s. “Whether anything actually comes out of it is a whole other story.”
Even if tensions appear to ease, she said, it would likely be temporary.
“At most, it would just be a short-term softening,” she said. “The fundamental thinking of Beijing has not changed.”
