What months ago seemed like an exception executed to fulfill the promise of strictly maintaining the fiscal surplus each month, became a complete “modus operandi” official. The Government is stepping on more and more committed expenses or tax refunds in order to continue showing positive numbers.
The consequence of this strategy is a growth in the so-called ‘floating debt’ of the State, which arises from the difference between the expenses accrued for different items (goods or services) and those who were actually paid. And to show the positive number in the public sector cash results, the government bet to kick payments that increase the number of pending commitments.
The biggest jump so far this year occurred in March, with an increase of 13.5% year-on-year if the figures are adjusted for seasonality. “If you look at it without seasonality, the monthly variation was 28.3%,” said analyst Salvador Vitelli, from Romano Group, and emphasized that this growth occurred due to expenses that the State made, but did not pay, to acquire goods and services, or in transfers.
Official numbers reflect that March closed with a floating debt (outstanding liabilities) of $4.04 trillion ($4,044,758.20 million), figure that marks a jump compared to the figure of $1.95 billion (1,950,414.50 million) with which he had closed February.
The jump in this debt in March (of $2.1 billion) implies “the largest increase in constant pesos of the Milei era”highlighted from Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI).
The Government maintains the fiscal surplus goal as a tool to regain credibility so that the country can return to international debt markets to refinance high maturities that will come in the coming years, but up to now it was not enough to achieve that scenario.
In the month-over-month comparison, without considering seasonality, it is observed that in March the largest jumps occurred in the transfer items (almost $700,000 million) and in the goods and services segment (almost $260,000 million).
As explained, the decision to postpone payments is a recurring mechanism that allows the Government to adjust income and expense flows to show a surplus balance in its cash flow each month. And although the figure for the floating debt of the central administration considers a broader universe than the segment on which the public accounts are analyzed (the non-financial public sector), its growth is a variable that reflects the tension faced by the Treasury due to fiscal accounts.
“It cannot be said that there is an adjusted deficit, since the floating debt of the rest of the parts of the national non-financial public sector is not known, although it is could be a proxy of a potential reduction in the cash base primary surplus. Therefore, the fiscal anchor is once again under the microscope. With more punished income and part of the adjustment supported by postponed expenses, the discussion moves from the photo to the flow and sustainability forward,” they stated from PPI.
Last March, Minister Luis Caputo announced that he had closed another month of surplus, obtaining a primary fiscal result of $930,284 million (before debt payment). According to official estimates, That figure is equivalent to approximately 0.5% of GDP.
With these numbers, the Economy confirmed that there was a surplus in the first three months of 2026, with a positive primary fiscal result in public sector accounts national 0.3% of GDP in January and 0.4% of GDP in February. In its statement, the Ministry of Economy insisted that the surplus “reaffirms the fiscal anchor of the program.”
But during the month there were some extraordinary items, such as “capital” income. equivalent to $1,043,879 million, product of the privatization of the Comahue hydroelectric plantswhich involved an income of more than US$700 million for the Treasury.
At the same time, general collection registered its eighth consecutive month of real decline in March, with a decrease reported by ARCA of 4.5% year-on-year. This dynamic was impacted by the stagnation in the level of activity, the drop in imports (less revenue from this item) and the reduction in withholding rates (soybeans, wheat and corn), which implied a reduction in revenue from export duties.
“74% of the primary surplus (including income from privatizations) “It is explained by the stock of floating debt (in January it was 51% and in February 43%),” the consulting firm Aurum Valores noted in its daily report.
According to the analysis of ASAP (Argentine Budget Association), the floating debt accumulated in the first quarter is equivalent to 9.7% of the total accrued in that period, “above the 7.5% observed in the same period of 2025.” And within that amount, the main items affected are capital expenses (with debts equivalent to 41.8% accrued), items of goods and services (29.8%) and remunerations (11.3%) According to analysts, items such as energy payments or transfers to funds such as transportation, which channel subsidies to providing companies, are included.
THE NATION consulted the Ministry of Economy about the floating debt figures, but had not received a response at the time of publication of this note.
