In the first quarter of 2026, the volume of premiums received in the cargo insurance segment collapsed by almost 20%. In the previous four years, Russian insurance companies actively developed this area, including after foreign players left the market. Now the situation on the international transportation market has become more complicated, including due to rising tensions in the Persian Gulf region. In addition, some policyholders began to cut costs. As a result, the volume of the segment at the end of the year may decrease by 5–10%.
Based on the results of the first quarter of 2026, the volume of the cargo insurance segment decreased by almost 20% compared to the first quarter of 2025, to 11 billion rubles, according to the Central Bank data. The drop in indicators during the period that traditionally accounts for the majority of insurance contract renegotiations occurred for the first time in four years. In particular, according to the results of the first quarter of 2023, insurers’ fees for cargo insurance in annual terms increased by 42%, in the same periods of 2024 and 2025 – by 24–26%.
Significant growth in 2022–2025 was associated with business localization and the departure of foreign companies.
“Insuring cargo transportation to Russia has become possible only with Russian insurers for the entire route, including abroad. Moreover, in some cases, the supply route itself has lengthened,” says Armen Gyulumyan, director of marketing and communications at insurance broker Remind. According to the head of the cargo insurance department of RESO-Garantiya, Andrey Anokhin, this especially affected the oil and gas sector, as well as metals and grain.
A significant decrease in the indicator during the reporting period is associated with a reduction in international transportation, market participants indicate. “International deliveries in the first quarter of 2026 decreased by 20%,” the insurance company Pari estimates. They note that “supplies from Dubai have dropped significantly due to the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran.” Companies are reducing cargo turnover and the number of flights in this region, taking increased security measures and choosing alternative routes, notes Natalya Volkova, head of the underwriting directorate for special types of insurance at SOGAZ (see interview with her). According to her, if the ship does enter this region, insurance companies consider each case separately, assess the criticality of the risk, the validity and the ability to provide insurance services. According to Armen Gyulumyan, the volume of transportation in some cases has decreased several times, which has led to a drop in insurance premiums. We are talking about mineral resources and grain, notes financial expert Andrei Barkhota.
There is also a decrease in traffic volumes within Russia. Many warehouses have been filled with goods since the New Year period, which leads to suppliers refusing new purchases, the Pari company points out. The decrease in consumer demand within the country also affected the situation with imports, they note. In addition, insurance market participants note the desire of clients to save. “Many companies are optimizing their cargo programs, excluding some destinations from those insured,” points out Ekaterina Yumasheva, co-owner of the insurance broker Mains. Also, according to Andrey Tverskoy, director of corporate insurance at Zetta Insurance, some clients are beginning to apply deductibles, and in rare cases, refuse insurance altogether.
By the end of 2026, insurers do not expect positive dynamics. A survey by insurance broker Mains shows that more than half of market participants predict a 5-10% reduction in fees. First of all, the situation in the Middle East, which has not been resolved for several months, will have a negative impact, Mr. Barhota is sure. According to his estimates, cargo turnover with Middle Eastern countries could decrease by 15–25%.
