Former Minister of Public Administration Dr Bhoe Tewarie is warning the country that the potential energy revenue that T&T may earn over the next few years must be used wisely and not squandered as in the past oil and gas booms.
Tewarie spoke at a virtual webinar on the Mid-Year Budget Review of the Trade and Economic Development Unit (TEDU) of the University of the West Indies (UWI) last Friday.
“This 2026 budget is due for mid-year correction soon, what should they do now to take the country through to September 2026? What will that mean for our economy and society? And what do they need to do in the 2027 budget, that is to say, what is the action required in September 2026 for 2027 budget, and in 2028 (action required in September 2027) to truly benefit from when the flow of additional revenue begins to accompany the flow of natural gas from Dragon and Manatee in Venezuela. I am not ignoring that there is also likely to be increased production in our sovereign domain. But that is the optimistic part, what gives us hope,” Tewarie said.
He then said the “dilemma” is how additional resources will be used.
“What do we do in the interim, before the natural gas flow to make the 2028 increased revenue rewarding? Because we can use up anticipated revenue with expenditure, deficits and debt incurred in the intervening two years or we can build up revenue, attract investment, consolidate a technological platform that helps us to leapfrog and optimise new gas revenue to create a sustainable future for our grandchildren. And that, is the stark choice.”
He warned that the Government cannot simply wait until 2028 hoping that increased gas flow will make up for current revenue shortfalls and that everything will be all right.
“The 2028 revenue flows will only make a difference if between now (2026) and then (2028) we can do the necessary action and preparatory work to optimise additional new sources of gas revenues. So, a lot depends on what we do in the next 18 to 24 months as we wait for increased flows of natural gas. So the mid-year review must focus on social stability and resilience and prepare for leapfrogging.”
Tewarie interpreted data which shows that while T&T’s economic performance is “resilient” it still is not in the place where it should be.
He referred to the World Bank and the Central Bank which both state that the economic outlook is stable but depends on oil price and the Manatee field.
“The oil price has been good, if volatile, since the attack on Iran, and Manatee seems to be on an accelerated track. But growth now is only 0.2 percent and energy dependent although other sectors – housing, manufacture, wholesale – don’t show any real buoyancy. This is in the Central Bank April 2026 report.”
He then examined what the World Bank projected.
In their April Macro Poverty outlook, Tewarie said the World Bank focuses on 2026 and 2027 with 0.7 per cent growth in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027 which he said sounds good, but it is all upstream energy and Manatee dependent anticipating earlier than 2028 gains.
“So, what conclusions can we draw from these April 2026 assessments by the Central Bank and the World Bank? The Central Bank basically says that T&T is in a holding position. The economy is not collapsing but it is not about to lift off either. The optimistic side of the Central Bank’s assessment is that if oil prices remain high, future energy from Venezuela and from our own sovereign domain will see us through.”
He then argued that the present United National Congress (UNC) Government is not to be blamed for the challenges that the country faces.
“They inherited an explosive situation. And what they have been focussed on is keeping the ship afloat as well as changing course. But this mid-year review needs to accelerate things. The 2027 budget must cause our country to leapfrog forward, and the 2028 budget must consolidate the T&T economy to make best use of the coming windfall.”
He also called on the Government to look beyond short-term political victories and plan for the country’s future.
