The incoming director of Israel’s Mossad spy agency believed a war with Iran could trigger the swift collapse of the regime, according to three Israeli sources familiar with internal consultations – an assessment that has failed to materialize after more than 40 days of fighting.
Roman Gofman, currently serving as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s military secretary, told the Israeli leader in planning discussions that the Iranian regime could be toppled, a view shared by the agency he is set to lead, and one that proved overly optimistic.
Gofman is slated to assume the post in June for a five-year term, replacing David Barnea, who also believed that a war could topple the Islamic Republic.
Barnea, who has led the Mossad since 2021, played a key advisory role in the lead-up to the US-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28 that began the war, according to two Israeli security sources. The New York Times reported that Barnea pitched Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump on the idea that assassinations of Iran’s leaders, followed by a series of intelligence-led operations, could mobilize the country’s opposition and spark protests, riots, and acts of defiance that would lead to the collapse of the regime.
“The Mossad’s position was that regime change is a likely outcome and that they can make it happen,” one of the Israeli security sources told CNN.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had reservations and was more nuanced in its goals, the source added, instead advocating aiming to weaken the regime and create the conditions for a public revolt. “The Mossad made a series of promises it didn’t deliver,” the source said.
The killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening wave of attacks and the subsequent US-Israeli destruction of Iran’s military and government infrastructure have so far failed to bring about any meaningful change in Tehran’s leadership or hardline positions. The new Supreme Leader – the son of the slain ruler – is believed to be more hardline than his father and closer to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Barnea, in his first public statement since the beginning of the war, said Israel’s mission in Iran was incomplete. “We certainly planned for our campaign to continue and to manifest itself even in the period following the strikes in Tehran,” he said, speaking on Israel’s Holocaust Remembrance Day Tuesday. “Our commitment will be fulfilled only when the extremist regime is replaced.”
Gofman, 49, was born in Belarus and immigrated to Israel at the age of 14. He spent over three decades in the IDF Armored Corps, holding numerous frontline and command positions.
Severely wounded in battle on October 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants attacked Israel, he has served since his recovery as Netanyahu’s top military aide, and he was involved in all of the key strategic and operational decisions around the region over the past two years, including in Iran, Lebanon, Gaza and Syria. As a Russian speaker, he is also Netanyahu’s principle point of contact with the Kremlin.
The prime minister announced his intention to appoint Gofman to the Mossad in December, choosing him over other candidates from within the spy agency. Though not unheard of in Israel, it is unusual to pick a spymaster from the military, not within the agency’s own ranks.
When Netanyahu appointed Gofman, he described him as an “outstanding, bold and creative officer who demonstrated out-of-the-box thinking and impressive resourcefulness throughout the war.”
Veteran defense analyst Amir Oren told CNN that Gofman has little to no experience in the specialized skills needed in the Mossad, including intelligence gathering, special operations, and liaising with other spy agencies. Oren described these as skills “in which one must be well versed for years and probably decades before daring to command others.”
Instead, Oren says that Gofman, who isn’t known to be an English speaker, was picked because of his loyalty to Netanyahu.
“There is a unanimous appraisal by serving as well as veteran military and security professionals that these appointments were not intended to benefit the security of Israel but rather help Netanyahu personally and politically,” Oren said.
The process of appointing Gofman, however, was delayed for months over a controversy stemming from a 2022 incident in which Gofman – then commander of an IDF regional division – allegedly used a teenager to publish classified information as part of an online influence operation. The teenager was later detained by the security services for an extended period and accused of publishing classified material, until the indictment was dropped after it was revealed that his activity was authorized.
The Times of Israel has cited Goffman as saying he wasn’t aware of the person’s age at the time, and that he had only ordered that he be given non-classified information.
The teenager, now 21 years old, has become one of Gofman’s most vocal critics and has appealed to the Supreme Court against his appointment.
CNN reached out to Gofman for comment through the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the IDF.
Gofman’s appointment reflects a broader effort by Netanyahu to reshape Israel’s security establishment in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, widely considered as Israel’s gravest security failure. Since then, nearly the entire top tier of the country’s security leadership has resigned, been ousted or reached the end of their tenure, including the defense minister, the IDF chief of staff, and the directors of military intelligence, and the Shin Bet.
With Barnea’s expected departure and Gofman’s appointment, Netanyahu will effectively stand as the last senior Israeli official still in position from the day Israel suffered the deadliest attack in its history on October 7, 2023.
