The group stage of the World Cup is approaching its conclusion, with one round remaining in all twelve groups.
Sweden will meet Japan on Friday night and, in the event of a loss or draw, will have to wait to see if they become one of the eight group third-place teams that advance to the round of 16.
In Group J, the situation is different. It is the very last group to be decided on Sunday morning, which sets the stage for a potentially bizarre scenario.
Austria and Algeria will meet to settle second and third place in the group, and at that point will know exactly what it takes to become one of the eight group third-place teams that advance to the round of 16.
Have three points
Both teams currently have three points. If that is enough to advance, it is likely that both Austria and Algeria will prefer third place to second place.
The second-placed team in the group will face the winner of Spain’s group, while the third-placed team – if it advances – has a good chance of facing an easier group winner on paper.
Austria has a better goal difference than Algeria and must lose to finish third in the group.
Algeria, currently third, will remain in third place in the event of a draw or loss.
They can help each other
What could prevent that scenario?
Either Spain loses to Uruguay (Saturday night) and misses out on winning the group.
Or both Austria and Algeria might need a point to safely advance. But then on the other hand there is the possibility for the teams to “help” each other into the round of 16 by playing for a draw.
In that case, it would not be completely different from the situation in the 1982 World Cup, when Austria lost 0–1 to West Germany, allowing both teams to advance while eliminating Algeria. It was a scandalous match that has since been known as the “Shame of Gijon”.
Eight out of twelve group third-place teams in the World Cup advance to the round of 16.
Ahead of the final rounds in the groups, Sweden is the best-ranked of all third-placed teams, with 3 points and a goal difference of 6–6.
Algeria is ranked fourth among the third-placed teams, also on 3 points but with a goal difference of 2–4.
At the moment, it is still unclear whether 4 or 3 points (or, more unlikely, 2 points) will be enough to advance.
In addition to Austria–Algeria, Australia–Paraguay in Group D is also a match where a draw will help both teams reach four points.
