Raphael John-Lall
Founder and President of the Caribbean Risk Management Academy (CRMA), Ken Hackshaw, is urging business owners to continue monitoring events in the Middle East, warning that the Iran war will continue to have a negative impact on T&T and the wider Caribbean region.
He also spoke about how companies can use risk management techniques to interpret the latest geopolitical developments and develop appropriate responses.
Last Tuesday, UWI-ROYTEC and the CRMA hosted a webinar on navigating the conflict in the Middle East, focusing on identifying risks and building organisational resilience.
ROYTEC, in its promotion of the webinar, noted that escalating tensions between Iran and the United States have the potential to disrupt oil markets, shipping routes, supply chains, and financial stability, and encouraged Caribbean organisations to be prepared to anticipate and manage these emerging risks.
Hackshaw urged business owners to remain alert.
“Again, the impact may not have reached your doorstep’s eyes yet. Do not fall into this complacent headspace that it is not happening here or it cannot happen here. And again, even if that conflict was to end today, that cascading impact is going to be around for another 12 to 18 to 24 months.”
He used the example of possible fuel shortages, given Iran’s missile attacks on facilities throughout the Middle East, and warned that energy-dependent Caribbean economies will suffer if this occurs.
“Fuel is becoming a problem, especially in Europe, where the usage and the storage is being depleted and not being replenished as quickly as it should be. And if planes aren’t flying as they should, tourism is definitely impacted in the Caribbean. And the supply chain, both by air and by sea, is going to be impacted. So how are you going to prepare for that? What are you doing now? And so, my attempt here is to probe and push a little further,” he stated.
The rising price of fuel internationally could impact the cost of food in T&T and across the region, he added.
“And that impact could be very direct or indirect. And I know many governments are subsidising that, but there’s going to come a point, if that point has not already reached, where to fill up your tank, the cost to fill up your tank increases. The cost of products you go into supermarkets to buy will increase.”
He also gave examples of how the insurance industry could be affected.
“This could be, God forbid, one of you, if you’re an entrepreneur, if you have a small business, or if you’re working for an insurance institution, for example. So, if your customers get impacted, your company gets impacted.”
He advised financial institutions to monitor their customer base to assess how clients are being affected by the crisis and to develop appropriate responses.
“So, you’re a small bank, a credit union, an insurance provider, your clients are probably small. Small and medium enterprises, or entrepreneurs, you know, individuals that drive taxis or have a garden that are agriculturists. There’s going be impact to them. So, one scenario analysis tip I can offer is look at your customer base, do a scan of your customer base, and then there may be a group of customers who will have more of a direct impact than others.
“Look at those customers that can be directly impacted, and then maybe have a conversation. You may have a relationship management team or someone within your loan department or credit risk department.”
He pointed out that if someone paying insurance becomes unemployed, one of the first things they may do is stop making payments.
“If you have loans with banks, and you get displaced, or your business is impacted, one of the first things to get to have that impact is payment of loans. So as the individuals, or the employees, or the residents of an island get impacted, the institutions on those islands will be impacted.”
He also warned about the dangers of ransomware attacks.
“So, another channel is state-aligned cyberattacks, ransomware attacks in financial institutions, data breaches, reputational damage. We have not started seeing too much of this. Globally, nearly half of all cyberattacks now attack small or medium-sized businesses. And the question is why? And the answer is simple. Small security teams, lower perceived maturity, limited detection and incident response, high value access into large enterprise and government supply chains.”
Hackshaw also advised businesses to have a business continuity plan.
“So, if you’re talking about business continuity, do you have a business continuity plan for your home? You’re talking about building resilience and being able to bounce forward. God forbid something happens. What’s your disaster recovery plan? How do you then bounce forward if – or not if – when you are impacted?”
Strait of Hormuz
One of the thorniest issues in the Middle East at present is disruption to the Strait of Hormuz.
Around 20 to 30 per cent of global fertiliser exports, and nearly 46 per cent of global urea trade, pass through the strait, affecting major agricultural markets such as China, Brazil, and India.
Hackshaw said this could impact remittances to the Caribbean and may even lead to shortages on supermarket shelves.
“So, you have the Strait of Hormuz that’s closed. You have the Red Sea, where that’s a problem because the Houthis have promised to attack ships moving through the Red Sea. The majority of natural gas and fertilisers and other ammonia products that get across to the supermarkets and to you, that’s putting pressures, reduced remittances, liquidity stress.”
He also addressed rising oil prices and urged business owners to prepare for various scenarios.
“If oil reaches $150, as of this morning, it’s currently trading at $100 a barrel. It’s trading, I think, at $107, no, $111. Let’s do a hypothesis here, let’s do a scenario analysis. So, oil reaches $150, what can happen? What are the worst things that can happen?”
Risk engineering consultant Dr Warren Black, based in Australia, also spoke, noting that 2026 began with significant challenges. He referenced the World Economic Report presented in January.
The Iran war began weeks later.
“What started out as a quick surgical strike has evolved into a prolonged global disruptor and includes a global fuel crisis, escalating supply shortages, global hyperinflation, fractured geopolitical relationships, a shifted power balance, a pending humanitarian crisis, and mass economic uncertainty. So, our working world is once again ripe for disruption. It doesn’t sound great.”
He also advised business owners and individuals to plan ahead, warning of possible food and other shortages if the global crisis worsens.
Risk management consultant Dr Nasreen Al Qaseer, based in Bahrain, also warned of serious economic consequences for the Caribbean.
“In the Caribbean, there could be vulnerability for tourism, trade and finance. The Caribbean faces a triple shock impacting economic stability, similar to Bahrain. What we see here is a chain reaction. There is tourism pressure. Also, rising fuel costs, higher air fares of 30 per cent to 40 per cent for the very minimum. The demand is declining. Tourism is the economic backbone and is under pressure.”
