Shippers looking to revive the passage of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz were seeking clarity on the logistics on Wednesday, while refiners inquired about new crude loadings, in response to a ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Most stranded oil and gas tankers remained inside the Gulf, LSEG shipping data showed, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the two-week ceasefire and said the U.S. would help with the traffic build-up.
Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said that if attacks against his country stop, Tehran would cease counter-attacks and provide safe passage in co-ordination with its armed forces “and with due consideration of technical limitations.”
Ship tracker Kpler said some 187 tankers carrying 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products were afloat inside the strait as of Tuesday.
With more than 1,000 ocean-going vessels trapped within the Persian Gulf, it would likely take more than two weeks to clear the backlog even under normal conditions, said Daejin Lee, global head of research at Fertmax FZCO.
“A 14-day window is simply too short to restore the level of confidence needed to fully unwind the embedded uncertainty premium — particularly for Arabian Gulf loading routes,” he said.
Lee said details remained unclear, including what actions ships and charterers must take to gain passage.
“Many blue-chip shipowners may wait several days to ensure the ceasefire holds before committing vessels,” he said.
Canada, others pledge to ensure ‘freedom of navigation’
Iran blockaded the strait in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks that started on Feb. 28, all but closing the waterway through which one-third of the global fertilizer trade and one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas cargoes transit, sending energy prices soaring and rattling economies and markets.
Iran later said it would allow passage for vessels without U.S. or Israeli connections, though reports emerged it was charging tolls as high as $2 million US for passage. In recent days, tankers or container ships owned or operated by Oman, India, Malaysia, Japan and France have been among those that have crossed the strait.
Asian economies are the main buyers of oil shipped through the strait and have been hit especially hard by the disruption.
China’s foreign ministry said it hopes all parties make joint efforts to facilitate early resumption of normal trade through the strait, while Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held talks with Iran’s president.
South Korea’s presidential Blue House said on Wednesday that the government would do its best to ensure the country’s ships can pass through the strait as soon as possible. While authorities maintained an advisory to avoid sailing near the strait due to lingering risks in the region, they will provide full support for the 26 South Korean-flagged vessels stranded there, its maritime ministry said.
Trump and U.S. officials have provided mixed signals on the importance of the strait concerning the calculus of when to stop attacking Iran.
“We barely get any of our energy out of the strait, just a tiny fraction,” U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday. “It’s time for the rest of the world to step up and ensure that that stays open after President Trump and the War Department brought Iran to the place where they are voluntarily opening it right now.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney joined the leaders of Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy and the European Union in welcoming Trump’s announcement.
“Our governments will contribute to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” their joint statement said, without offering specifics.
Military patrols to accompany commercial ships have been among the ideas discussed since the blockade was enacted.
“The logical takeaway is uncomfortable: Iran has established the capacity to control the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps indefinitely. Overwhelming military force alone is unlikely to change that reality,” wrote Mark P. Nevitt, associate professor of law at Emory University in Georgia, on Wednesday for Just Security, a non-partisan journal at New York University School of Law.
“What is needed is both a sustained multinational effort to keep the Strait open and a diplomatic solution to restore transit passage rights and freedom of navigation,” added Nevitt, a retired commander in the U.S. Navy.
Danish shipping giant not ready to transit yet
Iran will approach peace talks with the U.S. with far more caution than previous negotiations due to a big gap in trust, and the war will affect the future legal regime of the Strait of Hormuz, Ali Bahreini, the Iranian ambassador to the UN in Geneva, told Reuters on Wednesday.
Tehran has at times offered a vision for future control of the strait, and said it was drafting a protocol with neighbouring Oman that would require ships to obtain permits and licences.
Global oil prices continue to soar amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz is a major cause. But there are reports that Iran is allowing some ships to pass through — at a price. Andrew Chang breaks down how this ‘Tehran toll booth’ could be generating millions per ship while also breaking international law.
Images provided by The Canadian Press, Adobe Stock, Reuters and Getty Images
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association Bimco, said the industry was awaiting technical details from the U.S. and Iran.
“Leaving the … Gulf without prior co-ordination with the U.S. and Iran would entail heightened risk and would not be advisable,” he said.
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage, said it was expected that “tankers and oil flowing to Iranian-friendly countries to be the first ones to transit” the strait after the pause in fighting.
Danish shipping group Maersk said it was not making changes yet.
“Any decision to transit the Strait of Hormuz will be based on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation, and available guidance from relevant authorities and partners,” the company said in a statement.
Oil prices dropped Wednesday after Trump’s announcement. But Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told the Associated Press the mood was “of cautious optimism rather than outright celebration.”
“The ceasefire is only two weeks long, and markets will be watching closely to see whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes as promised and whether the fragile truce can pave the way for a more durable peace agreement,” he said.
