It would be just about the worst scenario possible if, 12 months from now, the heated conflict in the Middle East has taken on volcanic proportions. In which case, its new name would have to include the stretch of geographic influence it has morphed into.
Most wars behave that way. When most European capitals saw the rapid build-up of munitions under Hitler and the Nazis, some were comforted by Hitler’s demand only of ‘living space.’ In 1938, UK Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain travelled to Hitler’s castle and was taken round the mulberry bush as he latched onto ‘peace for our time’ and tried to market it. A year later, with a woefully unprepared England, World War II and German Tiger tanks were rolling.
A year from now, it may not matter what local or international-linked policy is formulated by Prime Minister Holness; if it is not politically blessed by the Trump political brand, it is dead. It was once the geopolitical fashion that, whenever the US launched an armed conflict abroad, western nations would applaud publicly, and politically the president would rise to the top of Gallup.
It must be remembered that the American armed forces need to execute a war in order to satisfy the appetite of the military industrial complex. One cannot discourage the lobbying by the munitions giants when there are so many dollars chasing down so many contracts. Plus, new tech rockets cannot fit into those 30 years and older. Something needs to be blown up somewhere.
The applause has died down this time. The big difference is, more Americans are seeing Trump for the sadistic bully he is and was always. He is not getting any political traction because it is plain to see that he does not know how to identify geopolitical directions and stances and, more importantly, how to get there. The very same voters who gave him a firm stamp of approval in 2016 and in 2024 are now indicating that the schoolyard bully routine is overdone and ineffective.
As Trump’s actions cause a significant dwindling of his key allies in Europe, he is forced to embrace those like Netanyahu who share his lust for war. The share of those Americans who sincerely believe that the Israelis are God’s chosen people has shrunk.
Way back in 1967 in the Six Day War, on the streets of a city on America’s west coast, in the space of an hour, US$8 million was collected for the Israeli war effort. I rather suspect that that sort of fervour does not now exist.
JUGGLING OF GEOPOLITICAL CARDS
China knows that Taiwan has no plans to go anywhere, the US knows that Puerto Rico will stay put. In bouts where millions of neurons misfire and Trump says he wants Canada, Greenland, we know that he is not quite there.
Should a Chinese tanker sail into Havana harbour or Mariel in Cuba, what do you think the US naval forces would do? Threaten China to hold onto Taiwan and switch the cards?
It seems obvious to me that Trump’s fascist batch of advisers has turned him onto the European model of the late 1930s. The problem is, they seemed not to have convinced him that it is easier to start a war than finish one.
If a US warship should pull into Kingston harbour seeking a resupply of food and water but not saying when it plans to leave, what then? And, should a Chinese aircraft carrier arrive and ‘park’ outside the harbour under anchor, what happens?
As the most powerful countries take advantage of the increasing global chaos under the direct leadership of bully Trump, small countries like Jamaica may find new status as guinea pigs. Recently, people and organisations who genuinely care about the plight of the Cuban people took in by sea supplies for the most vulnerable.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted that any supply to Cuba must only go to specific private sector interests. Ah, send me cooking gas for $2. Let me sell it to a teacher for $10. Rubio must have contracted a terrible dose of meanness and cruelty. How does he sleep knowing that a children’s hospital has no electricity?
This is, of course, the taking of political power to its extreme where ethical considerations re: the people are never needed. There were some who believed that Rubio would give Jamaica a special place at the table in dealing with the Cuban doctors. Geopolitics has no space for matters of the people.
Others share the view that Trump is plainly mentally unfit to handle what comes next and what exists now. We are told that he doesn’t read, doesn’t take his daily briefs seriously. He wants to be impressed by video clips of ‘stuff blowing up’. Seriously.
And there does not exist a single cabinet member prepared to say, ‘Mr President, will you please explain the thing you just said? Please. The American people and the global community would like to know.’
Mark Wignall is a political and public affairs analyst. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and mawigsr@gmail.com.
