The month of June will begin with a climatic factor that will be closely followed throughout the region: the development of an El Niño episode in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. According to the analysis of the Brazilian meteorological agency Metsul, The phenomenon is in an initial phase but will strengthen in the coming weeks, with an increasingly marked coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere.
Although the report is focused on Brazil, the conclusions have special relevance for Uruguay due to the influence it usually exerts El Niño on precipitation in southern South Americaa region that includes Uruguayan territory.
El Niño will gain intensity during June
According to Metsul, The surface waters of the equatorial Pacific have already reached anomalies compatible with an El Niño episode. The latest data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows above-normal temperatures in the key region of the central Pacific used to monitor the phenomenon.
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Meteorologists point out that the atmosphere is just beginning to respond to this ocean warming, but they estimate that By mid or late June the phenomenon will be fully established.
More humidity over the region
The report recalls that during the southern winter rainfall decreases in much of central Brazil, which favors the transport of moisture to mid-latitudes, including Uruguay, central Argentina and southern Brazil.
Furthermore, during June weather systems associated with cold fronts, warm fronts and low pressure centers that generate rain in the south of Brazil and neighboring countries.
Will there be a rainier winter?
Metsul does not project, for the moment, exceptionally abundant rains in Rio Grande do Sul during Junealthough it warns that the northern half of that state could receive higher accumulations due to the movement of weather systems from northeastern Argentina and Paraguay.
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Given that these systems usually also cross Uruguayan territory, The evolution of El Niño will be one of the factors to observe in the coming weeks to determine if the country registers above-normal rainfall during the winter.
Temperatures: cold, but without extremes
Regarding temperatures, Metsul considers June unlikely to be an exceptionally cold month in the south of Brazil, as happened in some recent years with repeated days below zero.
The consultant foresees temperatures close to normal values or slightly above average in much of the region. However, it clarifies that June continues to be one of the coldest months of the year and that cold nights will continue to be frequent.
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According to the forecast, the first half of the month would have relatively moderate temperatureswhile In the second fortnight, the probability of more intense cold air entering the south of the continent will increase..
