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    Home ASIA-PACIFIC Marshall Islands

    Is Hormuz reopening or shutting down? Shipping data and IRGC claims don’t match

    The Analyst by The Analyst
    July 9, 2026
    in Marshall Islands
    Is Hormuz reopening or shutting down? Shipping data and IRGC claims don’t match

    READ ALSO

    Nuclear test-scarred Marshall Islands criticises China missile

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    Is Hormuz reopening or shutting down? Shipping data and IRGC claims don’t match

    Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was at a near standstill on Thursday, according to shipping data. The slowdown came after renewed US airstrikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Tehran in the Gulf heightened security concerns.Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy claimed the strategic waterway had been secured and was gradually reopening.According to vessel tracking data and shipping sources quoted by Reuters, only two tankers had sailed through the strait in the early hours of Thursday, following renewed US airstrikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Tehran in the Gulf.The vessels included the crude supertanker Berg 1, which had loaded at Iran’s Kharg Island and is subject to US sanctions, according to analysis by shipping data firm Kpler. The Marshall Islands-flagged chemical tanker Well Sail also transited the waterway, Kpler data showed. The previous loading destination of this ship was near Sharjah in the United Arab Emirates, according to LSEG ship tracking data.Shipping sources also told Reuters that several vessels were turning off their public AIS tracking systems, limiting visibility on the actual number of ships moving through the strategic waterway.Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a report, “Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran.”However, according to Iran-based WANA news agency, Tehran’s IRGC Navy said the situation in the strait had improved, claiming it had restored security and control over the waterway after weeks of tensions.In a statement, the IRGC Navy said vessel traffic through the strait had reached around 50 per cent of pre-war levels and that efforts were underway to increase movement further for ships that comply with security requirements and receive authorisation from Iranian authorities.The IRGC Navy said, “Foreign powers have no place in this land or in the Strait of Hormuz.” It also warned that any attempt by the United States to interfere with navigation routes would face a response.“Any attempt by the U.S. military to interfere in determining navigation routes would be met with a decisive response.” The conflicting assessments come as the latest flare-up puts further strain on a three-week-old US-Iran truce.Iranian armed forces launched attacks on US military infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states on Thursday in response to US strikes on Iran’s southern coastal and eastern provinces.The recent escalation followed attacks earlier this week on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which Washington blamed on Tehran. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said US attacks and intervention in shipping movements were disrupting what it described as the gradual reopening of the waterway.The Strait of Hormuz handled about one-fifth of global oil supplies before the conflict began on February 28 with US and Israeli strikes against Iran.According to shipping data, activity had increased over the previous two weeks, reaching its highest level since the start of the conflict, averaging around 40 ships transiting the strait daily. However, this remained below the pre-conflict average of 125 to 140 daily sailings.The renewed attacks have also raised concerns among shipping insurers. Some marine war underwriters have advised companies to pause voyages through the strait, while others are reviewing their policy terms, insurance industry sources told Reuters.“The Hormuz reopening story looks more fragile after the latest escalation,” ship broker Clarksons said in a report. One of the three vessels hit this week, the Marshall Islands-flagged Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat, remains stranded off Oman and is awaiting salvage operations after a projectile strike late on Tuesday caused a fire in its engine room.Industry sources said the risk of an explosion was currently low and the vessel’s liquefied natural gas cargo appeared secure. The Marshall Islands ship registry told Reuters that no injuries or environmental impacts had been reported from the incident.



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