The Duma faction of United Russia (UR) held a retreat on April 24, during which deputies of the outgoing convocation were told about the work to update the ideological and practical components of the People’s Program. Particular attention was paid to the electoral ratings of the party in power. Despite the modest figures currently shown by surveys of the country’s leading sociological services – from 39% to 28% of support, in the September elections United Russia, according to forecasts, can gain up to 55% of the lists.
The off-site meeting, which was held behind closed doors in the building of the central executive committee of the party, was announced the day before and came as a surprise to many United Russia members. Several interlocutors at United Russia told Kommersant that some deputies even had to hand over tickets to their cities, where they traditionally go during the “regional week.”
Vladimir Yakushev, Secretary of the United Russia General Council and First Vice-Speaker of the Federation Council, addressed the faction. According to Kommersant’s sources, he recalled that work on updating the “People’s Program” should be completed by the end of August.
The party’s election document is awaiting updating both in the ideological and practical parts – United Russia will have to approve the plan for the next five-year period.
Work on the “People’s Program” will allow deputies to communicate with voters directly, we are confident in the United Russia leadership. Parliamentarians should also deal with the problems that municipal officials encounter when interacting with regulatory authorities, a task previously put President Vladimir Putin. Mr. Yakushev recalled that local support for United Russia depends on municipalities, which expect “protection and the opportunity to work peacefully,” sources told Kommersant.
Another pressing problem is the increased burden on regional budgets. Its decision should be reflected in the “People’s Program” in the form of specific proposals, the secretary of the General Council emphasized. He formulated one thing right away at the faction meeting: the party will turn to the head of state with a request to restructure budget loans to the regions at a later date. We are talking about a debt of 103 billion rubles, which the subjects must repay in 2026, said the head of the Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes Andrei Makarov. According to him, this money would now be better spent on social support for the population.
In conclusion, Viktor Poturemsky, director of political analysis at the Institute of Social Marketing (INSOMAR), spoke to United Russia members and explained the electoral picture that had emerged before the Duma elections.
According to VTsIOM, the level of support for United Russia has decreased over the past two months from 32% to 28%. FOM gives United Russia a much more encouraging result of 39%, and since the beginning of March it has grown by 3 percentage points.
The numbers differ due to different methods of obtaining information, explained Mr. Poturemsky: if FOM conducts face-to-face door-to-door interviews, then VTsIOM conducts telephone surveys. According to the expert, because of this, respondents adhere to different behavioral strategies, because it is more difficult to say about their reluctance to vote for any party in person than in a telephone survey. This is also why the VTsIOM data are more “emotionally charged,” the expert added.
According to average data calculated by INSOMAR, United Russia’s rating is 33%, the LDPR and New People – 10% each, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation – 9%, and A Just Russia (SR) is teetering on the verge of entering the lower house with 5%. However, the current rating is not equal to the result in the elections, the United Russia expert reassured the United Russia party: the discipline of voters is no less important, and United Russia is doing better than anyone with this. According to the INSOMAR forecast, with a turnout of 50%, the party in power can gain from 52% to 55% of the lists. The communists also know how to bring people to the polling stations, so the future result of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is estimated at 12–14%. The Liberal Democrats are doing worse with mobilization, and the predicted level of support is approximately equal to the rating – 10-12%. The most undisciplined are the New People voters, so the party can get 7-8%. Finally, in the last, but still passing place, INSOMAR sees CP with a forecast result of 5–6%.
