Transfers through family remittances in Guatemala They rebounded in the first quarter of the year, with an accumulated growth of 11.5%, contrary to what was observed between January and February, when they showed signs of deceleration.
The observed growth is associated with a context that affects the behavior of Guatemalan migrants, especially in March, among which the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, the rise in oil on a global scale, the tax on remittances, and even the relaxation observed after the departure of Kristi Noem as Secretary of Homeland Security of the United States, who was in charge of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Service (ICE, in English).
Although this situation persists, a greater increase in shipments would be expected in the second half of the year, according to analysts consulted.
Remittances, as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), They were 20.7% in 2025, higher than 19% in 2024.
Remittance income grows 11.5% in the quarter
During the first quarter of 2026, The accumulated income from family remittances was US$6,290.4 million (about Q48,118 million), which is equivalent to a growth of 11.5%, US$647.7 million higher than the same period in 2025, according to figures updated by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat) in the exchange balance that records the entry and exit of dollars.
In that period, The amount recorded in the balance was US$5,642.7 million, with a growth of 18.8%. That is, they received more than US$640 million in remittances in accumulated terms during the quarter.
The monthly average recorded was US$2.96 million.
Remittance flow breaks record in March
In March, transfers registered a record of US$2,441 million, amid international geopolitical tensions, as well as the rise in the price of a barrel of oil and refined products on a global scale.
In March 2026, remittances amounted to US$2,441.8 million, higher by US$438.1 million, that is, 21.9% compared to March 2025, when they reached a total of US$2,003.7 million. Shipments exceed the monthly amounts of the last 12 months.
It even exceeds US$2.39 billion in October 2025, which was the highest amount in official statistics.
Easter and employment increase sending of remittances
For Mario Arturo García, an independent analyst on remittances and migration issues, what was observed in March due to the record in currencies responds to several factors: some basic ones, such as registration and the Easter holiday, which by remaining closed can temporarily alter the dynamics of receiving remittances, which is why many families received more resources on March 30 and 31, which will balance in the first week of April.
It was influenced by the fact that in March there were five Mondays, which for remitters are usually important days in the flow of shipments, which can modify the usual behavior of transfers.
On the other hand, there are more structural factors. The analyst exemplified that weather conditions in the United States tend to improve starting in March in much of the territory, which opens up more temporary employment opportunities, especially in sectors where Guatemalan migrants tend to insert themselves.
Likewise, it should not be forgotten that the unemployment rate in the United States showed a reduction in March 2025, which may also influence a greater capacity to send remittances.
Shipments register a change in trend in March
One of the coincidences is that in March 2025 and 2026 there was a “break” in remittances.
Last year, for example, “extraordinary” and “unusual” quantities were recorded that would be associated with a greater amount and frequency of shipments. On that occasion, growth would be linked to the Trump effect, especially to the execution of immigration policy.
In March 2026, remittances amounted to US$2,441.8 million, higher by US$438.1 million, that is, 21.9% compared to March 2025, when they reached a total of US$2,003.7 million.
By 2026, international geopolitical tensions are observed in the Middle East, as well as the rise in the price of a barrel of oil and refined products on a global scale.
In this regard, analyst Mario Arturo García believes that we should wait to see what happens with income during April before stating that there was a break in the growth dynamics of remittances. which had been showing a slower pace until February 2026.
He recalled that, starting in April of last year, the inflow of remittances began to accelerate, largely – according to some interpretations – due to the tightening of migration dynamics in the United States. “The hypothesis was that many migrants chose to send more resources given the uncertainty about their immigration status,” he noted.
He emphasized that it could also be considered that the changes within the US Department of Homeland Security. (DHS, for its acronym in English), parent entity of ICE, have implied a certain relaxation in the tougher policy that the agency had been applying in several of the cities where an important part of the migrant community resides.
So, he concluded that, if so, this could also be influencing the recent dynamics of sending remittances to Guatemala.
Remittances represent 34.2% of the exchange balance
The update of the exchange balance for 2025, recently carried out by the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), shows that dollars from remittances and loans boosted the flow.
From the structure observed in 2025 of the exchange balance, US$26 thousand 312 million, which represent 34.2%, correspond to family remittances, registered as transfers and donations, and exceed US$22,345 million in 2024.
That difference is equivalent to a year-on-year growth of 17.7% in that concept alone.
Family remittances grew 18.7% in 2025 and stood at US$25,530 million.
Regarding the private sector loan segment, the amount of foreign currency that entered was US$29,144 million (in purchases), greater than the US$24,621 million in 2024, which represents an increase of 18.3%.
