Geran drones: what Russia’s new jet drones are like and how Vladimir Putin seeks to make Ukraine surrender

The change is not only technological, but also strategic. Russia is using these jet drones in combined attacks with long-range missiles and conventional dronesin a campaign that seeks to test the diminished Ukrainian air defenses, hit high-value infrastructure and disrupt daily life in cities like kyiv.

According to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Putin’s goal would be to increase pressure on Ukraine during the winter to force her to surrender.

The ISW emphasizes that this Russian strategy is costly, so it could not be indefinite. Due to this, Putin I would bet that the Ukrainian capitulation would have to be before the end of this winter, something that It would prevent Russia from having to assume greater costs or resort to a new mobilization of troops on the front.

only in Kyivwith its jet drones Russia has hit the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, a private medical center, offices and business buildings, the Darnytsia pharmaceutical factory, a 16-story residential buildinga commercial building and the administrative building of the Higher Council of Justice of Ukraine.

What are Geran drones like?

The Geran have their origin in the Iranian-made Shahed drones that Tehran supplied Russia after the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Russia It later began to produce them under its own name, Geranand introduce modifications, until developing new versions such as the Geran-3, Geran-4 and Geran-5, the latter jet propelled.

The first Shahid used massively by Russia They were relatively slow drones, powered by a piston engine and propeller. The new versions Geran They incorporate jet engines, like those of an airplane, which allows them to reach much higher speeds.

For Ukraine, this means less time to detect, track and take them down.

Speed ​​converts Geran Jets become an especially useful tool for overwhelming air defenses when Russia launches them along with other waves of conventional drones and missiles.

Regarding his power, Ukrainian intelligence determined that The Geran-3 can carry a warhead weighing between 50 and 90 kilosdepending on the variant, and use different types of warheads, including high explosive, fragmentation and thermobaric.

He Geran-4 It can carry 50 kilo warheads, including high explosive, fragmentation and thermobaric charges, although an enlarged version of up to 90 kilos has also been documented.

In the case of Geran-5the load reaches approximately 90 kilos.

According to the ISW, Ukraine is already developing interceptor drones capable of shooting down the Geran. Furthermore, the president Volodymyr Zelensky has assured that its defense forces have intercepted around the 55% of jet-powered drones released in September.

The Ukrainian military told the BBC that Russia went from launching 350 jet drones in June to 1,600 in July and 2,800 in August. The escalation continued in September: according to Zelensky, between the 1st and the 26th of this month alone, more than 2,730 of these devices were launched against Ukraine.

“Putin wants the Ukrainians to surrender, but it’s not going to happen”

For the international analyst Francisco Belaunde Matossianthe new campaign of Russian attacks seeks to provoke a bankruptcy in Ukrainebut will hardly get the country to accept a surrenderbecause kyiv maintains the capacity to respond.

“It is a strategy that seeks to make the Ukrainians surrender, but that is not going to happen. “Ukraine is also attacking military targets and strategic sectors of the Russian economy, particularly linked to oil and fuel, while on the front its forces have made progress in some sectors,” Belaunde maintains.

The analyst remembers a precedent in which a campaign of bombings contributed to forcing the capitulation of an adversary: ​​NATO’s air intervention against Yugoslavia during the Kosovo war. However, he considers that the comparison has important limits. “In the case of Ukraine, they are fighting to maintain their independence“A surrender would practically imply the disappearance of the country.”

READ ALSO

IGP Tremor in Peru today, September 30: Magnitude and where the last earthquake was

TC annuls investigation against Lourdes Flores Nano for 2006 campaign contributions

Belaunde does believe that the Russian campaign can generate important effects, although different from a capitulation. Among them he mentions the deterioration of the economy, the psychological pressure on the population and an eventual departure of more Ukrainians from the country.

“There will be distressed people in Ukraine, perhaps many will leave Ukraine and, of course, the Ukrainian economy will be greatly affected.”he explains.

But the analyst emphasizes that Ukraine she is not helpless. “The Ukrainians know that they are also making Russia pay a very high price”, he states. He believes that the development of new defense and interception systems for jet drones will be decisive.

The cost for Russia also increases

For Belaunde, the air campaign also does not eliminate the central problem facing Moscow on the battlefield. If the strategy fails to break Ukrainian resistance during the winter, Russia could intensify ground pressure againincluding an eventual expansion of its military mobilization.

The analyst warns that Russia also faces growing economic pressure due to the cost of the war and the high military spending expected for next year. He maintains that we will have to observe how this wear and tear affects the interior of the country and, eventually, the sectors close to Vladimir Putin’s power.

The new offensive also has a diplomatic dimension. Belaunde states that The intensification of attacks hampers the prospects for a peace negotiation promoted by United States President Donald Trump.

“I see the possibilities of peace at this time as very distant. “The images of destruction generated by the attacks may increase unease within the United States and reinforce the perception that Putin is unwilling to move toward a peace agreement that involves substantial concessions,” warns.