The conflict between the United States of America and Iran, which began at the end of February 2026, has temporarily calmed down after almost four months of intense fighting with the signing of a memorandum of understanding. The agreement does not mark the end of the conflict, but opens a 60-day negotiation period in which the parties are expected to try to reach a more permanent agreement. With this, the conflict entered the diplomatic phase, but the agreement remains fragile and dependent on actual implementation.
Among other things, the memorandum envisages the restoration of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the key transport routes for global trade in oil, liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, industrial raw materials and other critical input goods. For financial markets, the agreement is important mainly because it reduces the risk of long-term disruptions in the supply of energy products, and oil prices have already fallen following the announcement of the agreement.
Oil Price Movement Photo Dk Igd
The OECD recently published a report with economic forecasts for the years 2026 and 2027, in which, due to great uncertainty, it presented two possible scenarios for the development of the world economy. The first is the scenario of time-limited or short-term disruptions in the Middle East, which seems more likely in light of current events. In this scenario, the OECD expects global economic growth to slow from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 2.8 percent in 2026, and then recover to 3.1 percent in 2027. The second is a long-term disruption scenario, in which problems in the production and exports of energy from the Gulf states would continue deep into 2027. In this case, global growth could fall to 2.1 percent in 2026. and 1.8 percent in 2027.
In the short-term disruption scenario, the OECD assumes that energy production and trade flows in the Gulf economies will gradually begin to return to pre-conflict levels from the third quarter of 2026 onwards. The prices of energy products are expected to peak in mid-2026, after which they will gradually decrease. Inflation would therefore remain elevated this year, while in 2027 inflationary pressures would gradually decrease.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz does not mean an immediate normalization of the situation. Photo by Stringer/Reuters
Nevertheless, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz does not in itself mean an immediate normalization of the situation. Safe shipping and transport routes will need to be gradually re-established, and supply chains will need time to return to normal flows. In addition, many countries used up strategic reserves of energy during the crisis, so part of the future supply will also be devoted to their renewal. In a June report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that global oil supply could increase and exceed demand in 2027, if the agreement holds and exports from the Gulf region gradually normalize. Such excess supply would allow countries to gradually replenish depleted stocks and build additional safety reserves.
Central banks also reacted to the increased inflation. In June, the European Central Bank raised key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, and the Japanese central bank also raised the interest rate by the same amount. Such measures are intended to limit the risk of longer-term inflationary pressures, but excessively restrictive monetary policy can further dampen economic growth. We can conclude that the memorandum between the US and Iran represents an important signal for the financial markets of the easing of geopolitical risks, but it does not mean an immediate return to normal conditions. Crucially, the agreement reduces the risk of long-term disruptions in the supply of energy products, which can alleviate pressure on oil prices and inflation.
