Gross domestic product (GDP) in Estonia rose by 1.3 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 (Q1 2026), state agency Statistics Estonia reported as a flash estimate.
“According to the GDP flash estimate, there are several indications of economic improvement in the first quarter, compared with both the first and the last quarter of 2025,” said Robert Müürsepp, Statistics Estonia’s national accounts service manager.
Compared with Q4 2025, seasonally and working-day adjusted GDP grew by 0.6 percent, according to the flash estimate.
More information is available from Statistics Estonia’s website here.
Statistics Estonia says it will release official Q1 2026 data on GDP on May 29, with all economic transactions taken into account.
Economist: Rising oil prices will put brakes on economic growth in Q2 2026
Chief economist at Bigbank Raul Eamets said the fresh GDP figures confirm the sense that the economy had begun to gain new momentum at the start of the year, as also indicated by sector-based data.
That said, rising prices and the escalation of the geopolitical situation will likely start to slow economic growth as early as the current quarter, making it quite likely that this year we will see risk scenarios materialize, Eamets noted.
He put the projected growth for the whole of 2026 at around 1.5 percent.
“The central bank’s risk scenario suggests that with an oil price of US$120, economic growth this year would be around 1.5 percent,” Eamets said.
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