Despite enormous efforts and losses, Russia has failed to achieve any of its strategic objectives over five years of the war in Ukraine, the Estonian Defense Forces’ Intelligence Center wrote in its overview of the situation in Ukraine.
Developments over the past week were characterized by a slight decline in combat activity. At the same time, Ukraine’s long-range strikes deepened problems in Crimea and other occupied territories, while Russia continued to refuse negotiations with Ukraine on any terms other than its own, according to the report.
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the changed reality of the war in his public letter to the Russian president and called on Russia to enter negotiations. President Putin responded by saying that a meeting currently serves no purpose. According to President Putin, Russian forces control 100 percent of Luhansk Oblast, 80 percent of Donetsk Oblast and 80 percent of Zaporizhzhia Oblast and are advancing every day,” the Intelligence Center wrote.
The center also noted that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated his country’s position that the war in Ukraine is the result of a Western strategy aimed at containing, isolating and weakening Russia. According to Lavrov, Russia had agreed to the compromises reached in Anchorage, but because the United States did not put sufficient pressure on Ukraine to accept the solution proposed by Washington, the negotiation process stalled.
The Intelligence Center noted that the front line saw an average of 250 combat engagements per day, comparable to the level of combat intensity three weeks ago. “The Russian Federation captured 15 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory during the week.”
According to the Intelligence Center, the most intense fighting took place in the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole directions, followed by the Lyman, Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk directions.
The Intelligence Center wrote that Russian Federation units advanced in the directions of Sloviansk, Lyman, Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk.
“Ukrainian forces carried out counterattacks in Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and made some advances in the Borova direction and in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast,” the Intelligence Center noted.
According to the Intelligence Center, the Russian Federation lost an average of 1,400 military personnel per day.
The Intelligence Center said Russia’s long-range precision strikes targeted Ukraine’s energy, industrial, agricultural, transportation and civilian infrastructure in at least eight Ukrainian oblasts.
“During the week, nearly 1,500 drones and five missiles were launched at targets in Ukraine (compared with nearly 2,000 drones and 82 missiles the previous week). DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private-sector energy producer, reported that Russia has attacked the company’s thermal power plants 230 times since the start of the full-scale war,” the report said.
According to the Intelligence Center, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued conducting intensive medium-range strikes against Russian military facilities and lines of communication up to 300 kilometers from the contact line. “According to Ukraine, these operations have reduced the volume of military transport on the highway linking Rostov-on-Don and Simferopol by 71 percent over the past two weeks. Due to the increasing frequency of attacks, the commander of the Russian Armed Forces’ East Grouping banned military cargo traffic on this route and on the highway connecting Kerch and Sevastopol,” the Intelligence Center wrote.
The EDF Intelligence Center noted that Ukrainian medium-range strikes prompted the occupation authorities in Luhansk Oblast to impose temporary restrictions on civilian traffic along the Belgorod–Mariupol and Rostov-on-Don–Simferopol highways and to suspend suburban rail service on four separate railway sections.
“Ukraine attacked the Chonhar Bridge twice during the week in an effort to disrupt logistical support for Russian forces in Crimea and on the southern front. As a result, traffic on this route into Crimea was halted and drivers were advised to use the Armyansk and Perekop routes, adding 120 to 150 kilometers to the journey and slowing the movement of goods. Ukrainian Armed Forces also struck the road bridge between Henichesk and the Arabat Spit, creating additional logistical difficulties for Russian authorities,” the Intelligence Center wrote.
The Intelligence Center explained that because of the Ukrainian attacks, restrictions on fuel sales to private individuals are in effect in Crimea and the amount of public transportation available to residents has declined. “Information has also emerged indicating that Crimea is no longer among Russia’s most popular vacation destinations. As of late May and early June, hotel bookings in Crimea had fallen by 31 percent compared with the same period last year,” the Intelligence Center noted.
The Intelligence Center pointed out that Ukrainian long-range precision strikes hit an oil refinery in Samara Oblast last week, as well as fuel infrastructure facilities in Leningrad, Vladimir, Volgograd and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai. Ukrainian drone attacks also struck a gunpowder factory in Ryazan Oblast, a plant producing drone and missile components in the Chuvash Republic, a naval base in Kronstadt, a naval arsenal in Bolshaya Izhora and military facilities in Belgorod Oblast, Krasnodar Krai and Crimea.
According to the Intelligence Center, Russia’s Ministry of Energy was forced to acknowledge that Ukrainian attacks on oil industry enterprises have caused fuel supply disruptions in several southern regions of the country. To address the problems, Russia established a coordinating task force for the sector that includes the country’s largest fuel industry companies.
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