BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Electricity
exports from Central Asia to China could become a long-term
strategic option for the region, but their implementation would
require confirmed demand, clear commercial terms, and an assessment
of technical feasibility.
This is stated in the report by the Eurasian Development Bank
(EDB), “Energy Without Borders: Architecture of Energy Connectivity
in Central Asia,” provided exclusively to Trend.
According to the report, China has extensive experience in
high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission technologies,
renewable energy, grid construction and battery energy storage
systems. This could give Central Asian countries potential access
to capital, technology and new markets.
However, the eastward route should currently be viewed as a
strategic project option rather than an established export
corridor. The publicly available materials used in the report do
not confirm a potential buyer, supply volumes, a route, a technical
configuration, a commercial model, or the allocation of risks.
“The Chinese market is not homogeneous. The Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region is geographically close to Central Asia, but
proximity does not automatically translate into demand for imported
electricity. China is actively developing its own generation
capacity, ultra-high-voltage grids, renewable energy and
interregional transmission lines. The practical question,
therefore, is whether there is a specific creditworthy buyer, a
connection point, a pricing formula and a long-term contractual
model,” the report states.
From a technical perspective, electricity transmission eastward
would likely require HVDC technology or another controllable grid
interconnection scheme. Such solutions allow power flows to be
managed and help reduce risks to grid stability without requiring
the power systems to operate in strict synchronization.
However, the necessary infrastructure would require substantial
capital investment and large, guaranteed electricity supply
volumes, the report notes.
Another key consideration is how an export project would be
integrated into Central Asia’s regional power system. According to
the EDB, a model focused exclusively on exporting electricity from
individual large power plants could have limited benefits for the
region’s interconnected grid.
By contrast, integrating the eastward route into the broader
regional energy system could increase the economic value of
renewable energy, create additional external demand, build
expertise in HVDC technologies and attract investment.
Realizing this potential would require a separate preliminary
feasibility study, confirmation of buyer interest, an assessment of
technical standards and an analysis of the potential impact of
exports on the reliability of electricity supplies within Central
Asia.
The EDB emphasizes that developing the region’s interconnected
power system remains a necessary foundation for export projects.
Coordinated efforts by Central Asian countries could strengthen the
region’s negotiating position and reduce the dependence of
potential electricity exports on a single external buyer.
