350,000 unsold condo units may take five to six years to clear
The condominium market in Bangkok and surrounding provinces currently has around 350,000 units of unsold inventory. Average annual ownership transfers across the market stand at about 60,000 units.
Based on a simple calculation, assuming no large volume of new supply enters the market, it would take around five to six years to clear the excess stock.
“The figures show that today’s market problem is not a lack of buyers, but the fact that there is too much remaining supply for short-term purchasing power to absorb. The longer this stock remains in the system, the more developers’ financial costs will rise,” the company said.
With supply still exceeding demand, bargaining power has started to shift. In the past, sellers largely set market conditions. Today, buyers have far more choices in terms of price, promotions, discounts, giveaways and payment terms.
Many developers are therefore delaying new launches and focusing on liquidity management rather than rushing to expand. In a highly competitive market, preserving cash may now be more important than rapid growth.
Looking at the overall picture, Thailand’s condominium market is moving from an era driven by investment and speculation into one increasingly driven by real demand.
The absence of new CBD condominium launches, the growing proportion of projects priced below 80,000 baht per square metre and the shift towards the 1.5-million-to-3-million-baht price range all point to this transition over the next one to two years.
“Developers that survive may not be those that launch the most projects, but those that can develop projects that best match real market purchasing power. With more than 350,000 unsold condominium units in the market, the key question is no longer what more to build, but how to sell the stock that already exists,” Knight Frank said.
