“AUR alone will not be able to suspend the president, he needs a large majority. After that the referendum follows” ANALYSIS

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The threat evoked by the leader GOLD, George Simionregarding the suspension of President Nicușor Dan balances the balance of power in Parliament and the political instruments available to the Opposition. Although the AUR has a consistent parliamentary group and is on a favorable trend in the polls, the procedure for suspending a president is a complex one, which requires not only extensive parliamentary support, but also popular validation through referendum.

In an analysis for Newspapers.compolitical scientist Răzvan Pantelimon, PhD university lecturer at the Faculty of History and Political Sciences of “Ovidius” University, pointed out that although the AUR has enough mandates to initiate the suspension procedure, the road to the effective removal of a president from office is long and involves overcoming several political obstacles.

Suspending the president, a much more complicated process than it seems

According to analyst Răzvan Pantelimon, George Simion’s statements must be seen through the prism of parliamentary and constitutional realities because simply submitting a suspension proposal does not guarantee the success of the approach.

“Suspension is not easy to do, there is no direct suspension position. It is quite a complicated process. Yes, AUR at the moment has the sufficient number of MPs to propose the suspension procedure, but it has to be voted on by a majority of both chambers, and we have seen that it is difficult to muster. AUR alone will not be able to suspend the president, it needs a large majority. After that the referendum follows. Let’s not forget that President Traian Băsescu was suspended twice and won or returned following the referendum through which the citizens did not support this suspension. So it is not a simple procedure, but there is an element of negotiation because the AUR has this capacity to propose and it remains to be seen what it manages to collect in the parliament”, Răzvan Pantelimon opined in the analysis for Ziare.com.

Why wouldn’t George Simion have an interest in forcing the suspension now

Although the AUR party is in a favorable position in the polls, it does not seem to have strong reasons to call for an early presidential election. The political analyst appreciates that the current electoral context offers no guarantees that AUR could turn a possible suspension into a presidential victory.

“But at the moment I think that the AUR has no interest in doing this suspension, even if at the parliamentary level they are doing very well in the polls, they have an important vote, somewhere around 40% plus or minus, it will be difficult to think of a presidential candidate who will win from the AUR side. I have seen George Simion already lose once, he has not had a massive increase in the last period, which would allow him to make scenarios in which he wins the presidential elections. O possible suspension of President Nicușor Dan, I think it would pave the way to the presidential election for the Prime Minister Ilia Bolojan. Because here is the new Messiah of a large part of society, he took the place he had some time ago, last year, President Nicușor Dan, and then probably a round of presidential elections would bring George Simion and Ilie Bolojan and we would relive what we relived a year ago, in which there would be a rally behind Ilie Bolojan to not let the extremist forces win, to take us out of Europe, to come the Russians and all the other speeches I heard even a year ago. So, I don’t think it suits George Simion at this moment to suspend the president, but it really keeps him in check, to avoid this permanent threat, this sword of Damocles over his head, that in case of something maybe he has to start a suspension procedure, but I repeat, it’s quite a complex process”, said Răzvan Pantelimon in the dialogue with Ziare.com.