There is a week left before the first semi-final of Eurovision 2026, and Moldova is not just participating – but is jumping right in from the first note. In a new column for NewsMaker, the country’s main Eurovisionist Katya Dmitrieva examines with whom Satoshi will have to share the stage, why the bookmakers are still on our side, but it’s too early to relax, and why Finland, Greece and Estonia are dangerous. At the same time, he explains who will be able to vote for Moldova on May 12 – and why it is better not to put it off “for later.”
There is only a week until the first semi-final of Eurovision 2026. Representative of Moldova Satoshi will open this show. Thus, he will become the first participant of the entire competition that the audience will see. But it so happens that he is not the only one who will perform on May 12. A total of 15 countries will compete for 10 places in the final, which is scheduled for May 16.
Too many numbers? Let’s narrow our focus and pay special attention to our three competitors. For each of them I will provide the following information: a short biography, the semi-final order and the bookmakers’ forecast at the time of writing. I will also give my assessment of these applications and add a short (or not so short) comment.
Moldavian format
For Satoshi it would look something like this (minus the bio):
Moldova: Satoshi – “Viva, Moldova!”
Sequential number in the semi-finals: 1
Bookmakers’ forecast for qualifying for the finals: passage (88% probability, 5th place in probability of passage)
Grade: 10/10, naturally.
Such a high score on my part is due not only to patriotic feelings, but also to a little observation. I believe that this composition is a perfect example of a new version of the Eurovision song format. Many people still have an idea of what a track for a competition should look and sound like. Often this is something in English, otherwise anyone in Europe will understand another language. This is necessarily an emphasis on vocals. This is a straight, like a rail, trajectory of thought in the text. These are universal themes, such as love. But Eurovision has long moved away from such a very narrow format. No, this does not mean that such songs no longer have a place in the competition (see Australia’s entry). This only means that each country is free to determine its own “format”, based on previous experience in the competition and the goals of participation.
“Viva, Moldova!” fits this definition perfectly. The song is not necessarily for listening to on repeat with headphones – it is more likely to be performed live to a huge audience. Spectators love Moldova at Eurovision precisely for the fun and danceability of the compositions, so we tick this box again. The jury hates us for reasons that only psychics can figure out. But still, a slight wink to this group of people in the form of Alena Moon’s part is present in the track (you can read more about the features of Alena Moon’s role in the history of Moldova at the competition here). Judging by the comments, this song has already inspired dozens of Eurovision fans to travel to Moldova, and the tourism and promotional potential of the competition, which is watched by about 150 million people, is difficult to overestimate.
I’ll add a fly in the ointment to this ocean of honey. We go first. In itself, this is not a particularly difficult position, but, unfortunately, our half of the semi-final is very strong, because it contains 3 songs from the top 10 contenders for victory: Sweden (which is right after us), Greece and Finland (more on them a little later). There is a lot of competition, but the bookmakers have great faith in our success, and the support of the song’s fans across Europe could easily be enough to overcome this obstacle.
By the way, not so long ago the clip for our application received 1 million views.
“Bring a violin”
Finland: Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen – “Liekinheitin”
Rarely does anyone capture the minds of competition fans and bookmakers as much as this year’s representatives from Finland, Linda Lampenius and Peta Parkkonen, did. Linda Lampenius was born on February 26, 1970 in Helsinki. She comes from a family of Swedish-speaking Finns. Linda is a professional violinist with many years of experience and winner of numerous music competitions.
Pete Parkkonen was born in Pihtipudas on February 8, 1990. His grandfather, Pierre Rassen, a native of Martinique of African descent, was a musician. Pete participated in the Finnish talent show Idols (analogous in Romania – “SuperStar Romania”, in Russia – “People’s Artist”). After this, he was able to build a relatively successful career, which few participants in such television projects manage to do.
Pete and Linda’s joint composition “Liekinheitin” (“Flamethrower”) describes the emotional experiences of a man whose partner is “so hot and cold at the same time” and he cannot understand the status of their relationship. Back in 2016, Eurovision presenter and winner Måns Zelmerlöw jokingly advised participants to “take a violin with you” for a high result. Finland followed this call and, it seems, was right.
Sequential number in the semi-finals: 7
Bookmakers’ forecast for qualifying for the finals: passage (96% probability, 1st place in probability of passage, 1st place in probability of winning the competition)
My rating: 9.5/10.
There are times when I don’t share everyone’s enthusiasm for the possible winners. But here I completely agree with the bookmakers. The potential of this composition is fully revealed in a live performance. The emotion in Petya’s voice can literally be felt through the screen. Linda is wonderful and I have nothing to add here. Apparently, their performance at the competition will be extremely similar to what could be seen at the Finnish national selection, so we already know what to expect from them.
As with Satoshi, I would like to add one small but serious “but”. Pete is a wonderful vocalist, a wonderful artist and, presumably, the Finnish double of Pasha Parfeni. They even have the same initials – PP, I’m sorry. But that’s not the point, it’s the final note. She is an extremely important part of the act, almost the culmination. The problem is that during selection this very note sounded a little unstable. Later they remade it, and at recent performances Pete sounded much better. At the same time, the danger that this particular final part could ruin Finland’s chances of winning remained. Already on Tuesday we will find out how Pete is doing and whether he was able to overcome this vocal obstacle.
Pete and Linda’s performance at the Finnish national selection.
“Put on your hat!”
Greece: Akylas – “Ferto”
Fans of hats were also not left without a representative at this year’s competition. Akilas Mytileneos was born on February 11, 1999 in the city of Serres in northern Greece. He became known to the general public thanks to the covers he published on TikTok, as well as through his participation in the Greek “The Voice”.
The composition “Ferto” (“Carry/Give to me”) is about materialism, about the thirst for success. Akilas lists all the things he wants. “It will never be enough for me, I want everything now!” In a slower interlude at the end of the song, it is revealed that such desires are the product of a difficult childhood. “Mom, look, what have we lived without all this time? It seems I can make sure that we never need anything.” The composition is considered satirical. Whatever it is, “Ferto” will definitely not leave the audience of the competition indifferent.
Sequential number in the semi-finals: 4
Bookmakers’ forecast for qualifying for the finals: passage (95% probability, 2nd place in probability of passage)
My rating: 9/10.
This song is considered our main competitor in the fight for audience votes for a reason. A dance composition with a rap base, bright packaging and a vocal insert. As Valdis Pelsh would say: “Guess the melody.” Accordingly, both the advantages and disadvantages regarding the final result for Moldova and Greece are approximately the same. Yes, the jury usually doesn’t like this very much, and a lot depends on the ability to present the song correctly. At the same time, such compositions are often liked by the audience. I would also like to note that the new rules have diversified the composition of the jury of the countries. Zoomers, that is, people under 25 years old, should now also be present there. I think that the number of points from the jury for Greece will show whether the new rules have an impact on the final result.
At the moment, Greece also ranks second in terms of bookmakers’ bets on the winners of the competition. Let’s see if Akylas lives up to these high expectations.
Video for the song “Ferto”.
Ice cream with a surprise
Estonia: Vanilla Ninja – “Too Epic To Be True”
Vanilla Ninja are true legends of Estonian popular music. The group was founded in 2002. Interestingly, they have already participated in Eurovision. This happened in the year of Moldova’s debut at the competition – in 2005. It is also noteworthy that they represented Switzerland. The song “Cool Vibes” made it to the finals and took 8th place. If you think this is the weirdest fact about Vanilla Ninja, then you are wrong. They have their own brand of ice cream. More precisely, judging by the available information, they are the face of this extremely popular product in Estonia. The composition “Too Epic To Be True” is about love, as if destined by fate.
Sequential number in the semi-finals: 9
Bookmakers’ forecast for qualifying for the finals: uncertain (46% probability, 11th place in average probability of passage, 10th place according to some bookmakers)
My rating: 7/10.
Nice pop rock song. Not the best and not the worst in its genre. The version that is closer to the rock sound is indeed more advantageous, and, with maximum probability, this is what we will hear on the Eurovision stage.
Now about the rates. If you are surprised by the lack of a clear forecast, then let me explain to you. This semi-final is something of an anomaly in terms of betting. There is not even the slightest unanimity among bookmakers regarding the last place among the passable ones. Some even try to cram 2 songs into 10th place at once. If for some compositions this situation seems extremely strange, then for “Too Epic To Be True” it is the most understandable. Vanilla Ninja managed to rise from 14th place to 11th in a month, and at the time of writing, the difference in the probability of passage between them and Georgia, which is in 10th place, is only 1%.
After the Estonian national selection ended, many observers predicted Estonia’s elimination from the semi-finals. However, it later turned out that the Estonian popsicle queens have a potential audience that is usually not on the radar of Eurovision fans. Judging by the reviews, the song is gaining popularity among older viewers and pop rock fans.
Perhaps this factor will help Vanilla Ninja, despite the initial skepticism, still break through to the finals. In this case, I wouldn’t be surprised if they are announced last, in order to keep this intrigue going until the end.
The intended final version of “Too Epic To Be True”.
If you don’t want to wait for May 12, you can look at our other competitors (the number before the country name is the serial number in the semi-finals):
2. Sweden
3. Croatia
5. Portugal
6. Georgia
8. Montenegro
10. Israel
11. Belgium
12. Lithuania
13. San Marino (yes, it’s really Boy George, don’t you think so)
14. Poland
15. Serbia
Also, during our semi-final we will see the performances of 2 automatic finalists – Italy And Germany.
Let me immediately note for the diaspora: not all of you will be able to vote for your favorite compositions on May 12. For example, Romania and Ukraine are in the second semi-final. Accordingly, people located in these countries will not be able to vote in the first semi-final. These are the rules of the competition. On May 12, the countries participating in the first semi-final, automatic finalists Italy and Germany, as well as residents of countries that are not participating in the competition this year, vote. If you meet these criteria, you will be able to support Satoshi and any of the other participants listed above. But it’s better to start with Satoshi. And then – how it will turn out. That’s all, see you.
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