Fateful talks over the future transformation of US-Israel military relations, which will frame that partnership for a decade or more, are due to start in May, The Jerusalem Post has learned.
In a radical departure from the historical reason for such talks, which have focused on maintaining or increasing military aid to Israel, the upcoming discussions are expected to focus on a process that will eventually wind down US military aid to Israel, exchanging it for funds relating to a joint partnership.
Israeli sources have confirmed that the talks are expected to last around four months, which incidentally would involve them concluding before Israeli Knesset elections in October, and the American November midterm Congressional elections. Despite these predictions, the talks might have begun earlier in 2026 had it not been for the war with Iran and Hezbollah.
Future events related to Iran and Lebanon could still potentially delay the commencement of the talks.
Calcalist reported on Sunday that the winding-down period of US military aid to Israel is expected to last 10 years.
This period fits cleanly into the standard decade-long Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) agreements, which Israel and the US have periodically signed.
The existing MoU runs from January 2019 to 2029, such that the next agreement would be expected to run from January 2029 to 2039.
The rush to negotiate the deal not only relates to potential unpredictable elections in the fall but also to the fact that many of the programs funded by an MoU require multi-year planning.
This means that if Israel wants to receive certain military items in 2039, the deal and parameters for those items need to be worked out several years in advance.
Future technological ventures between the US and Israel
A major topic of negotiation will be the substance, timelines, and scope of future joint military and technological ventures between the two countries.
According to Israeli officials, laser air defense, other new defense systems against threats like hypersonic missiles, and artificial intelligence (AI) could all be part of the menu of joint projects.
Although not specifically mentioned this week by Israeli sources, various officials in the past have discussed working on joint projects related to quantum computing, space offensive, defensive, and spy technologies, and robot technologies.
However, the Post has confirmed that Israel will also want some built-in degree of flexibility in how ongoing aid or partnership funds will be used, given the dynamic speed at which technologies and new threats are developing.
Defense Ministry Director-General Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amir Baram, Israeli Ambassador to the United States, Michael Leiter, and officials from the IDF, the Defense Ministry, the Finance Ministry, and the National Security Council will all be involved in the wide-ranging talks on behalf of Israel.
The US negotiating team will include US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, his senior adviser Michael Needham, and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, according to Calcalist.
The Defense Ministry told the Post, “The defense-strategic cooperation between Israel and the United States is deep, unprecedented, and rooted in shared values.”
According to the ministry, it is “committed to deepening this partnership for the long term – from aid to partnership – leveraging Israel’s standing as a model ally to ensure the qualitative and competitive edge of both nations.”
All of this will be taking place against the background of a newly hostile attitude in both major US political parties toward foreign military aid, including to Israel.
Recently, in the US Senate, 40 out of 47 Democrats voted to block weapons sales to Israel.
This followed a May 2024 decision by the Biden administration to partially freeze weapons sales to Israel in protest at the IDF’s invasion of Rafah.
It also comes on the heels of opposition by the vast majority of Democrats to the joint Israeli-US war against Iran that began on February 28.
Although the legislation to block sales failed, with seven Democrats supporting Israel along with the Republican vote, there is also a growing segment of the Republican party calling to scale down military aid to Israel.
In fact, foreign aid to many countries was already scaled back by the Trump administration earlier in 2025 as part of his “America First” ideology.
NIS 35 billion per year added to the defense budget
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicized a plan to add around NIS 35 billion per year to the defense budget, with a specific focus on increasing Israel’s capacity to self-produce various munitions and technologies and achieve greater military independence.
Netanyahu and Israeli defense officials have wanted to avoid a recurrence of the Rafah situation, where they delayed the invasion and reduced its intensity out of concern that otherwise Israel might run out of American-provided munitions.
There is a wide-ranging debate about whether there will be sufficient funds, with some worrying that reducing US aid will leave a major gap, while others believe that it is still unclear whether, or how, a monumental new funding surge would be spent properly.
More specifically, Israel does not produce its own fighter planes, and it is expected to seek additional F-35 fighters in addition to the squadrons it has already purchased.
It is unclear what Israel would do to maintain its regional air superiority if a future US government refused to continue to sell the state its F-35 aircraft.
It was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who first publicly initiated the idea of changing US military aid over to joint US-Israel ventures, apparently in anticipation of new, harsher political winds in Washington.
In December 2025, the Heritage Foundation proposed a process of zeroing out US military aid to Israel between 2032 and 2047.
At the time, the suggestion received heavy criticism, and Leiter even canceled his participation at a Heritage event where the proposal was due to be rolled out.
But since then, it appears that the ground has shifted and Israel itself is proposing an earlier end to the aid, to be replaced by joint ventures.
On the flip side, sources told the Post that Israel had always had a 10-year period in mind for winding down the aid.
The last MoU was signed in 2016 as the Obama administration was winding down, providing Israel with $38 billion over 10 years.
That deal focused on F-35 and F-15-EX fighter jets, KC-46 tanker aircraft, helicopters, and $500 million annually for developing more Iron Dome and other aerial defenses.
Most of the military aid Israel has received from the US over the years has been required to be spent with American defense manufacturers.
Overall, Israel’s defense budget post-October 7 has skyrocketed to NIS 144 billion (growing by dozens of billions of shekels since early 2026), with the defense establishment pushing for tens of billions more per year.
