 |
| A senior economist briefs on the latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook during a regional seminar in Vientiane last week. |
ASEAN+3 growth to slow as trade tensions weigh on exports, AMRO says; Laos outlook mirrors trend
ASEAN+3 economies, including smaller markets such as Laos, are expected to see slower growth over the next two years as US tariffs weigh on exports, though domestic demand is likely to provide some support, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) said.
In its latest ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook, AMRO said the region’s economy is projected to expand by around 4.0 percent in 2026 and 2027, easing from a stronger-than-expected 4.3 percent growth in 2025.
The region’s resilience has been underpinned by firm private consumption, sustained investment and strong demand linked to artificial intelligence-driven semiconductor production, even as global trade tensions intensified.
Laos’ growth outlook broadly mirrors the regional trend, with the economy projected to expand at around 4.6 percent in 2026 as weaker external demand and trade pressures weigh on exports.
 |
| A senior freight train inspector at Vientiane South Station said the bulk of Laos’ exports via the Laos-China Railway consists of minerals, cassava, rubber and other agricultural commodities. |
However, domestic activity is expected to remain supported by investment in energy, infrastructure and services, although exposure to global uncertainty and reliance on key partners such as China could continue to pose risks.
AMRO said higher US tariffs are expected to dampen external demand across the region, while technology-driven exports and continued foreign direct investment inflows should help offset part of the drag.
Despite the relatively stable outlook, risks remain tilted to the downside, including disruptions to the global energy supply due to the Middle East conflict, which could add to inflationary pressures, potential escalation in trade tensions, and volatility in global financial markets.
The outlook was discussed at an ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook and Fiscal Policy Seminar held in Vientiane on April 24, jointly organised by AMRO and the Ministry of Finance of the Lao PDR.
Opening the seminar, Director General of the Department of International Finance Cooperation at the Ministry of Finance, Mr Vongkhamheng Vongthachack, said the region had demonstrated “remarkable resilience” in 2025 despite shifting trade policies and heightened uncertainty, with growth reaching 4.3 percent on the back of strong adaptation, rising high-tech demand and deeper regional integration.
“For the Lao PDR, these regional trends are not just statistics — they are the environment in which we build our future,” he said, noting that the country’s role as a “land-linked” hub is becoming increasingly strategic as regional production networks evolve.
He said Laos had completed implementation of its 9th National Socio-Economic Development Plan (2021–2025) and is preparing to launch the 10th plan for 2026–2030, aimed at strengthening economic resilience and sustaining growth.
“Enhancing fiscal discipline and transparency is essential to maintaining policy flexibility,” he said, stressing the importance of stronger public financial management amid global uncertainty.
He added that regional cooperation was no longer optional but essential, as closer economic linkages increase shared vulnerabilities while reinforcing collective resilience.
The seminar also highlighted the importance of regional policy coordination, with AMRO economists presenting key findings from the 2026 ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook and the ASEAN+3 Fiscal Policy Report, which examines fiscal challenges and policy options, including reforms to strengthen public financial management across the region.
By Bounfaeng Phaymanivong
(Latest UpdateApril 30, 2026)
