BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 4. Climate change
will lead to a rise in temperature, a reduction in summer
precipitation, and increase the risk of landslides, flash floods,
and debris flows in the Kura River basin.
This was reflected in the report of the Asian Development Bank
(ADB) titled “Glaciers to Farms Climate Risk and Capacity
Assessment and Recommendations.”
According to the research, winter temperatures are expected to
rise by about 1°C by 2035, and by up to 5°C by 2085.
Meanwhile, winter and autumn will become slightly wetter, while
spring and summer will grow drier, with summer temperatures rising
by as much as 5°C and rainfall declining by up to 20%.
“The shifts are likely to increase the risk of landslides, flash
floods, and debris flows, as well as glacier lake outbursts in
Georgia. More frequent “rain-on-snow” events in winter could also
raise flood risks,” the report said.
The document pointed out that the retreat of glaciers is
widespread in the Kura basin. This area is also characterized by
small glaciers with an unstable snow cover, and water runoff in
late summer is sustained to a significant extent by snowmelt. At
the same time, the extent of permafrost is limited.
The research has been conducted under the Glaciers to Farms
(G2F) program aimed at assessing climate risks to water resources
and agricultural productivity in Central and West Asia.
Supported by the Green Climate Fund, ADB has conducted a glacier
risk assessment for four representative watersheds: Kura, Naryn,
Pyanj, and Swat.
This assessment analyzed 40 years of weather records to detect
spatial and temporal variations in temperature, rainfall, and
snowfall across mountain and lowland areas.
The G2F program is designed to complement ADB’s existing country
climate risk assessments and help strengthen long-term water
security and agricultural resilience in the face of accelerating
glacier retreat.
The Kura River is the largest river in the South Caucasus. Its
total length is 1,515 km, of which 906 km pass through the
territory of Azerbaijan. The area of the river basin is 188,000
square kilometers (km²).
The Kura originates at an altitude of 2,740 meters on the
northeastern slope of Mount Kizil-Gedik in Kars province in
Türkiye. Flowing through the territories of three states – Türkiye,
Georgia, and Azerbaijan – the river flows into the Caspian Sea.
Kura’s water resources are formed from several sources: 36%
comes from melted snow water, 30% from groundwater, 20% from
rainfall and 14% from melted glacial water.
