In the midterm elections in the United States, which took place on November 3, the Republicans suffered a defeat against the Democrats, even in their traditional strongholds. For example, a Democratic candidate won the Senate seat in Kansas for the first time in 94 years, and Democrat James Tallarico advanced by about 12 points over his Republican competitor in Texas, a state loyal to Trump and his party.
The performance of Republicans declined in 99% of the approximately 2,100 counties included in the counting of most votes, compared to Trump’s results in the 2024 elections, according to a census conducted by Reuters in cooperation with “US Today.”
The number of seats in the US House of Representatives is 435, of which the Democrats have officially won 240 so far, while the Republican Party has won 147 seats so far. The same applies to the US Senate, which consists of 100 seats, in which the Democrats won 54 seats, while the Republicans won 44 seats.
Mustafa Kamal Damani, a researcher in security and strategic studies, told:Al-Shorouk Online“The vote was punitive as a result of the accumulation of many policies contradictory to the electoral promises made by President Donald Trump, starting with improving the economic situation and raising the slogan “America First,” passing through the corruption scandals in the Epstein file to the customs tariffs and their negative role felt by the American voter, all the way to the repercussions of American foreign policy at home, from the Israeli aggression on Gaza and Lebanon, the war on Tehran, and the internal effects that accompanied that. These developments made the issue of defense spending and its feasibility the subject of public debate in Washington, in addition to the financial commitment to support the occupation at the expense of American internal needs. These are issues that were previously among the taboos in American political literature. However, the American military involvement and its cost sparked debate regarding Washington’s relationship with the occupation, which is a remarkable shift that was a result of the state of tension regarding the policies adopted.”
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The American war cast a shadow over the American interior, contributing to raising fuel prices and inflation. According to polls reported by Reuters, nearly 90% of voters considered that the cost of living was an important or decisive factor in their vote, while about two-thirds of them held Trump responsible for the rise in prices.
This defeat extended to the Republican Party, with many differences emerging within it regarding the unilateral policy adopted by Donald Trump.
The American Republican Party witnessed a phase of political and organizational rift, as a result of increasing differences between the movement loyal to President Donald Trump, known as the “MAGA” movement, and the traditional Republican wing.
Damani believes that this division gained greater importance following the midterm elections, in which Republicans lost their majority in both chambers of Congress, which opened the door to questions about the future of the party’s leadership and the extent of Trump’s continued dominance over it.
The researcher says, “This state of fragmentation may affect partisan visions in interaction with various international issues, such as international competition with Beijing, the relationship with Moscow, Atlantic relations, American foreign military redeployment, and European-American relations.”
The recent midterm elections also witnessed the rise of Muslim, Arab, and immigrant figures in the US Congress.
Democrat Abdul Rahman Al-Sayyid won the Michigan state Senate seat, becoming the first Muslim to reach this American legislative institution, and media reports indicate that at least seven Muslims were elected to Congress during these elections.
Although this Middle Eastern presence in American institutions is a remarkable transformation, Damani does not believe that it will bring about a radical change in American Middle Eastern policy, due to the limited influence, calculations, and equations within the ruling system, which is also affected by the “deep state.”
The researcher adds, “Perhaps the French model is the best evidence. The Maghreb presence in the French parliament of members of Maghreb origin, and even ministers in successive French governments, did not have the expected effect in changing French policy toward Middle East issues. This applies to Washington, in light of the many similarities between the two systems, without this leading to any change, at least on the foreseeable level, even if this in itself is a shift, despite its limitations.”
Our interlocutor expects to see the remaining two years of Trump’s term, after control of both houses of Congress is transferred to the Democrats, “internal re-arrangement and the setting of priorities, the most important of which is the state of inflation and the accompanying chaos in the standard of living, the energy dilemma created by the scene in Hormuz, and the state of uncertainty that threatens the global economy and international energy security, especially since the effects have begun to affect many of the Western countries allied with Washington in formulating global policies, which makes Washington’s ability to move in influence diminish, and this does not mean that The decision to resume the war has been completely cancelled.”
These results make the president’s ability more restrictive and disrupt his movement, despite his authority to decide peace and war. However, any future step makes him more vulnerable to clashing with accountability and pressure, which puts him in a state of curbing this impulsiveness, Damani says.
But the researcher points out that “this does not mean that American foreign policy will change in a radical way at all. Disagreements over the approved mechanisms, method of management, and priority do not mean that the crises in the Middle East will end, for example. The crisis swamps in the Middle East, as a model, are complex, overlapping, and cumulative, and a change in the American scene does not necessarily mean a change in their paths.”
As for international competition, researcher Mustafa Kamal Damani points out that “the Republican Party’s priority is to confront Beijing and limit its escalation, while the Ukrainian file appears to be a democratic priority. Hence, the Democrats aspire to isolate Moscow from integration with Beijing by draining it in Ukraine, while the Republican approach is based on containing Moscow at the expense of the relationship with the European Union. This is what emerged in the partial lifting of the recent sanctions on Moscow by Trump’s decision, and also through Trump’s talk about spending.” This reflects, in addition to his previous ambition to dominate Greenland, the form of fluctuations and tensions in American-European relations during the Trump era.
