PRESENTING ESTIMATES AS PROVEN FACTS COMPROMISES THE INFORMATIONAL RIGOR
Economic projections and what-if scenarios require context, technical support, and a clear explanation of their limitations.
The publication of The Star of Panama titled “The copper bill: million-dollar losses from the mine would fall on Panamanians” requires important precisions. Its approach presents economic projections and hypothetical scenarios under a narrative of losses for the country, without giving sufficient relevance to the assumptions and limitations that determine these figures.. Information about the future of Panama Copper It requires special rigor, due to its implications for thousands of workers, families, suppliers and communities.
The main question is in the methodology that supports these amounts. The study of Conservation Strategy Fund (CSF) builds an economic balance until the year 2074 through estimates of environmental, health and financial impacts. This type of analysis can contribute to the debate, but its results depend on the quality of the data, the relevance of the assumptions and the consistency of the calculations. A mathematical projection does not prove, by itself, that the estimated damage has occurred or that the estimated cost will fall on Panamanians.
Estimates of mortality from air pollution must be contrasted with the results of the independent SGS audit, which evaluated compliance with the commitments established in the Environmental Impact Study. As reported by the Interministerial Commission, none of the four main non-conformities identified corresponded to atmospheric emissions. Attributing impacts of this severity to the project requires specific evidence and an explanation of how those estimates relate to verified on-site conditions.
The inclusion of inhabitants of the Río Grande basin, which flows into the Pacific, as an exposed population downstream of basins that flow into the Caribbean, also requires clarification, without explaining a route that justifies this connection. Added to this is the possible repeated accounting of losses in child productivity: a calculated lifetime economic harm would appear to apply again each year to children who remain in the same age group. These aspects must be contrasted with the original formulas, as they can modify the results of the analysis..
The use of international references requires demonstrating that conditions are comparable. The report extrapolates costs from the Faro mine, in Canada, and the Fundão disaster, linked to Samarco, in Brazil. Applying costs per hectare or per volume of waste does not substitute a specific evaluation of the characteristics, infrastructure and needs of Cobre Panamá.
In particular, the comparison with Fundão must consider relevant differences in design, construction and operation. That dam used a surge method called “upstream,” which has never been used at the Cobre Panamá facility. There are also differences in the materials stored and drainage systems. These conditions are essential to evaluate the relevance of transferring the economic consequences of that disaster to this project.
The figure of US$95,270 million corresponds to a scenario conditional on a catastrophe whose probability is not calculated. Estimating how much a hypothetical disaster would cost is not equivalent to calculating an expected loss, nor does it demonstrate that this amount will end up being borne by the population.
Likewise, an “extreme consequences” rating describes the severity of the potential effects of a failure, not the probability of its occurrence. According to the design guidelines used as a reference for the installation, this classification requires more rigorous criteria. Presenting it without this explanation can generate a wrong perception about its meaning..
The risks of the Cobre Panamá facility are managed through design criteria, operational controls, continuous monitoring and independent reviews. According to the technical information available, more than 160 geotechnical instruments allow monitoring its behavior, and the results are reported monthly to the authorities. The most recent post-earthquake inspection confirmed its stability, with no displacement, leaks or other conditions of concern. These controls are not equivalent to stating that the risk is non-existent; They are concrete elements that must be incorporated into your evaluation.
It is also necessary to distinguish between existing environmental costs and those that could be generated under future scenarios. A rigorous evaluation must compare alternatives, separate historical obligations from additional costs, and establish who would be responsible for financing them. The stoppage of a mine does not eliminate its maintenance, monitoring or environmental treatment needs. Without that distinction, it cannot be concluded that every estimate represents a new loss attributable to an eventual reopening.
Panama also has technical evidence obtained through the comprehensive audit contracted by the State and carried out by SGS. Its fifteen volumes were published for public consultation. According to the officially disclosed results, 366 of the 370 commitments evaluated did not receive an adverse rating in the unweighted reading, equivalent to 98.92%, while the weighted comprehensive rating reached 87.73%..
The Interministerial Commission identified four main nonconformities in flora, ecological restoration and reforestation, and noted that none corresponded to tailings stability, water quality or atmospheric emissions. It also recognized nine commitments with some level of non-conformity and recommended remedial measures. The Government also reported that the audit was the subject of an independent technical review.
These results do not eliminate environmental obligations nor replace an economic study. They constitute, however, project-specific evidence that must be examined when describing its conditions and risks. Rigor requires distinguishing what was verified on site, what was estimated using a model, and what remains subject to verification.
Given these questions, we consider it necessary that The Star of Panama expand information on the report methodology, the limitations of the comparisons used and the contrast of its results with independent specialists. The relevance given to its conclusions requires that readers have these elements available to assess its scope.
The transparency required of a company must also apply to organizations whose studies contribute to public debate. Have information about the context in which the study was carried outthe entities that participated and the methods used allow us to better assess their conclusions.
Editorial responsibility includes both the attribution of figures and the verification of their foundations and their appropriate contextualization. We recognize the critical role of the media and believe that the same rigor should be applied to all sourcesincorporating evidence and technical observations that may modify the interpretation of its results.
Panama deserves verifiable information and a debate in which estimates are presented with their foundations and limitations. Publishing a study does not resolve questions about its methodology, nor does it turn its projections into demonstrated losses. Corresponds to The Star offer its readers the precision and contrast elements necessary to evaluate this information.
Maru Galvez
Public Relations Manager
Panama Copper
