(PAHO) – The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) has published a new Public Health Situation Analysis on the El Niño climate event (2026–2027), which examines the potential health risks associated with its likely development during 2026 and early 2027. The document analyzes how different climate scenarios related to El Niño could affect population health, health services, and other determinants of health in the Americas, and provides recommendations to support country preparedness.
The document provides a comprehensive analysis of the Region of the Americas, with particular attention to the subregions and countries that, according to the climate scenarios considered, could face greater risks associated with the phenomenon. From a health perspective, it examines how different extreme weather events—including droughts, floods, and heatwaves—can influence health risks and affect both the physical and mental well-being of populations.
First, the analysis addresses communicable diseases, identified among the main public health risks associated with certain climate scenarios. These include cholera and other waterborne diseases, as well as vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. Second, with regard to noncommunicable diseases, the document examines the potential impacts of heat stress and increases in respiratory conditions associated with wildfires and deteriorating air quality. Finally, in the area of mental health, the document notes that displacement, loss of livelihoods, and other impacts related to climate emergencies can increase the need for mental health and psychosocial support.
From the perspective of infrastructure and services, the analysis assesses the vulnerability of health facilities to structural damage. Specifically, it examines 756 emergency hospitals that could be exposed to risks from coastal flooding associated with sea-level rise, as well as to disruptions in supply chains for medicines, supplies, and other resources essential to maintaining continuity of care.
With regard to the determinants of health, the document analyzes the situation in a differentiated manner for specific populations. For maternal and neonatal health, it focuses on the risks that pregnant women and newborns may face when extreme weather events affect access to safe water, health services, and emergency obstetric care.
In relation to malnutrition, the analysis examines how crop losses, food insecurity, and disruptions to livelihoods could particularly affect vulnerable groups, including children under 5 years of age. Gender-based violence is also identified as a risk that may intensify in certain contexts of displacement, overcrowding, or service disruption caused by disasters.
The Public Health Situation Analysis on the El Niño phenomenon in the Americas (2026–2027) also recommends that health authorities and governments strengthen a range of preparedness and response measures. These include strengthening epidemiological surveillance to facilitate the early detection of climate-sensitive diseases and the monitoring of the nutritional status of vulnerable populations, as well as promoting the integration of climate and health information to improve the early identification of health risks.
The document also highlights the importance of ensuring access to safe water and sanitation services, particularly in areas exposed to flooding or prolonged periods of drought. It also underscores the need to strengthen health system preparedness to maintain the continuity of essential services during climate emergencies.
To safeguard continuity of care, the analysis identifies options such as telehealth, mobile brigades, and other service delivery modalities that can help prevent disruptions in care for people with chronic diseases or other priority needs. It also emphasizes the importance of incorporating measures to prevent and respond to gender-based violence and of strengthening the safety and operational capacity of health facilities during emergencies.
Finally, the document highlights the relevance of risk communication and community engagement, including actions adapted to local and cultural contexts, to strengthen community preparedness and promote behaviors that help reduce health risks associated with extreme weather events.
The report underscores that the health impacts associated with the El Niño phenomenon can vary considerably among countries, territories, and communities, depending on factors such as exposure, vulnerability, and preparedness and response capacity. In this context, it highlights the importance of strengthening anticipatory action and intersectoral coordination to reduce the potential effects on population health.
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