Overview:
Pacific leaders are moving toward coordinated emergency action as fears grow over a looming fuel crisis, with Pacific Islands Forum leaders signaling plans to invoke the Biketawa Declaration. The move comes amid rising global oil prices and uncertainty over supply chains tied to the ongoing Middle East conflict, raising alarm across island nations already bracing for shortages.
In short:
(ABC-Australia) The prime minister of Solomon Islands says Pacific leaders have agreed to invoke the Pacific’s emergency response mechanism, the Biketawa Declaration, over the looming threat of fuel shortages.
The Pacific is already grappling with rising oil prices, and there are concerns over fuel supplies if the war in the Middle East continues.
What’s next?
Several plans have been floated, including the United States and New Zealand sourcing emergency fuel supplies for Pacific nations from the US Indo-Pacific Command.
The prime minister of Solomon Islands says Pacific leaders have declared an emergency over the looming threat of fuel shortages, while the Australian government contemplates a plan which could see stocks of diesel held by the US military sent to Pacific nations suffering shortages.
Jeremiah Manele issued a statement after meeting yesterday with the other members of the Pacific Island Forum (PIF) “Troika” — Palau President Surangel Whipps and the prime minister of Tonga, Lord Fakafanua — saying they had all agreed to invoke the Pacific’s emergency response mechanism, the Biketawa Declaration.
The declaration was last triggered by Pacific nations in response to the COVID-19 crisis, and was also invoked ahead of the RAMSI intervention in Solomon Islands.
While the Pacific is yet to be hit with significant fuel shortages, it is already grappling with the economic impacts of rising oil prices, and many countries are deeply worried about what will happen if the war continues and tankers stop arriving.
Tuvalu has already declared a state of emergency in its capital, the Marshall Islands has enforced emergency powers to restrict fuel use, while other Pacific nations have said they have no assurances of supply beyond May or June.
Mr Manele said the leaders had considered a “regional scenario planning framework to guide preparedness for short, medium, and long-term fuel supply disruptions”.
He said invoking the Biketawa Declaration would “place the region on a coordinated high alert framework to respond to the unfolding energy security crisis”.
There are still some question marks over Mr Manele’s statement, as it does not appear that he or the PIF Secretariat have yet secured agreement from other Pacific leaders to invoke the Biketawa Declaration — and it is not clear if the Troika has the power to trigger it unilaterally.
The PIF Secretariat has not yet responded to the ABC’s request for comment.
But one Melanesian government source said it was now “clear the Pacific was moving in this direction” because of the looming uncertainty posed by the war.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong did not say if Australia had been consulted about the emergency declaration.
“We are engaging very closely with our Pacific friends and neighbours,” she said.
“We know it’s a challenge for the region, and for Australia … we’ll continue to work together on this.”
Mr Manele also suggested that Pacific nations should pool oil procurement, saying there needed to be a “coordinated regional approach to strengthen collective negotiating power on fuel pricing and freight costs, including for Solomon Islands”.
Several other Pacific nations are also starting to step-up diplomatic outreach to secure oil supplies beyond May and June — for example, Fiji’s Foreign Minister Sakiasi Ditoka is expected to visit Australia and other regional countries next week for discussions on fuel security.
The Energy Minister Chris Bowen joined the PIF Troika meeting yesterday virtually to discuss energy supply chains and the risks of regional shortages, while Senator Wong has previously said Australia was looking at what it could do to help the region weather future oil supply shocks.
The ABC understands one idea being contemplated was to work with the United States and New Zealand to source emergency fuel supplies for Pacific nations from the US Indo-Pacific Command.
Other analysts have championed the idea of a pooled procurement strategy led by Australia and New Zealand, which would see stocks of oil distributed throughout the region.
The director of research at the Lowy Institute, Mihai Sora, told the ABC that a “collective regional response to the fuel crisis” was important because “individually, Pacific countries have limited leverage to ensure ongoing domestic access to fuel”.
“But this is not a coordination problem as much as it is a global supply shock,” he said.
“Perhaps, unfairly, all eyes will be on what Australia can actually deliver for the region — not just itself.
“All governments right now are faced with hard questions about their own national energy resilience.
“Aside from getting some fuel deliveries into the Pacific, the next step is really to double down on energy transition in the region and put in place contingencies for future shocks.”
University of Canterbury Pacific Regional Security Hub head José Sousa-Santos, told the ABC it was “of the utmost importance that Australia supports this initiative”.
He said it would “not only reduce the need for Pacific countries to accept external assistance”, but also “demonstrate clearly that Australia is not just a regional partner but part of the Pacific family, or vuvale”.
“The provision and delivery of fuel can be expedited to Pacific countries in critical need by including Australia and New Zealand’s buying power in the Pacific bloc,” Mr Sousa-Santos said.
“It ensures the Pacific is in a stronger position to bid for scarce oil in current and future markets, and it creates a precedent and structure to enable quicker regional responses to the future crises.”
Massey University associate professor Anna Powles said the exact rules regarding the invocation of the Biketawa Declaration were slightly ambiguous.
“Invoking the Biketawa requires the PIF secretary-general to consult with the forum chair, forum leaders, such as the troika, and forum foreign ministers or, in this case, the economic or finance ministers. The process balances urgency with inclusivity,” she said.
“The regional architecture has been under pressure over the past few years and invoking the Biketawa reinforces the importance of the regional architecture to respond to Pacific crises.”
