The cost of Belarusian gasoline supplied to Russia is rising amid high demand and fuel shortages in some regions. Over the week, prices for AI-92 at Belarusian refineries increased by 6%, and since the beginning of May – almost 1.8 times. The increased interest in Belarusian supplies is associated, among other things, with more predictable terms for the execution of contracts, although they are not capable of significantly changing the situation on the Russian market, analysts note.
Prices for Belarusian AI-92 gasoline delivered to Russia increased by 6% over the week, to 127 thousand rubles. per ton, having increased 1.8 times since the beginning of May, follows from data from the National Exchange Pricing Agency. According to the results of trading on June 29, sales of AI-92 at Belarusian refineries increased by 3.06 thousand tons, to 6.54 thousand tons. In addition, 240 tons of AI-100 were sold at 135 thousand rubles. per ton.
According to the review, sales of Belarusian gasoline on the exchange on June 1–26, 2026 amounted to 79.38 thousand tons. A year earlier, the sale of gasoline by the country’s refineries at auction was minimal. In the week of June 22–26, 28.02 thousand tons were sold, prices maintained an upward trend, analysts indicate.
According to market participant estimates, two Belarusian refineries are theoretically capable of providing fuel to the Moscow region, but their capacity is limited, so the supply potential for the entire country is small.
Nevertheless, Belarusian fuel purchased during the auction is shipped within 30 days without delays or disruptions. In Russia, deals can be extended up to 60 days, and the actual shipment occurs on the 35th day and the situation changes daily, adds Kommersant’s source.
Independent expert Sergei Pravdin notes that prices based on Belarusian factories are not limited by artificial regulatory mechanisms and remain the only market indicator of pricing on the Russian market. “If the task is to understand the real prices for gasoline on the large wholesale market, first of all you should look at the prices of Belarusian refineries,” says the expert.
At the St. Petersburg Exchange, restrictions on the growth and decline of gasoline and diesel fuel quotations remain. At the auction on June 30, AI-92 according to the index of the European part of the Russian Federation rose in price by 0.12%, to 70.71 thousand rubles. per ton, prices for AI-95 increased by 0.01%, to 75.12 thousand rubles. per ton.
Russia is ready to import petroleum products if agreements are found at acceptable prices, press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov said on June 30. According to him, meetings to stabilize the fuel market are held daily.
There remains a lack of supply in the domestic market against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in demand, so the interest in imports is quite understandable, but the prospects for supplies depend on logistics and the economics of transactions, notes Dmitry Scriabin, portfolio manager at Alfa Capital Management Company.
But Sergei Pravdin says that it is almost impossible to find free volumes of gasoline on the spot market for prompt delivery to the Russian Federation, and sanctions complicate calculations and logistics.
With diesel fuel, according to him, the situation is simpler, but one cannot count on fast and significant supplies from Africa, Turkey, India, the UAE or Kazakhstan. Kpler noted that Russia can import fuel from Belarus, Azerbaijan, Central Asian countries, India and Turkey.
Analysts, meanwhile, expect a decline in prices for Russian oil on the domestic market. As stated in the Argus review, the cost of a July shipment of oil in Western Siberia, due to a decrease in export alternatives, may decrease to the level of February-March – 26-26.5 thousand rubles. per ton (FIP Nizhnevartovsk). This is 26–28% less than the cost of June batches. Euler senior analyst Andrey Polishchuk also expects domestic oil prices to fall following world prices. According to Dmitry Scriabin’s forecasts, wholesale fuel prices may also gradually decrease due to improved logistics and increased supply. An additional factor in favor of such a scenario could be a decrease in oil prices, the analyst notes.
