The president Lula (PT) appears with 47% of voting intentions in a second round simulation with the senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), which scores 44%. The data comes from a new BTG/Nexus survey released this Monday (29), which again records a technical tie between the two main pre-candidates for the Presidency.
The difference between the two narrowed from 6 points of last survey for 3 points. The PT member registered 49% in mid-June, while the former president’s son Jair Bolsonaro (PL) had 43%.
In the first round scenario, the current president maintains the lead, with 42%, the same percentage as in the last round. The congressman comes next, with 34% of intentions, after scoring 33% in the last measurement, an oscillation within the margin of error.
The survey was carried out by telephone, from June 26th to 27th, with 2,009 voters residing nationwide. The margin of error is two percentage points, and the confidence interval is 95%. The survey is registered under code BR-08521/2026.
Still in the first round scenario, after Lula and Flávio, they appear confused Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), with 5%; Renan Santos (Mission), with 4%; and Romeo Zema (New), with 3%. Joaquim Barbosa (DC), Augusto Cury (Forward), Aecio Neves (PSDB) and Cape Daciolo (Mobiliza) have 1% each. Blanks, nulls and none add up to 5%. 3% do not know or did not know how to answer.
Among the beneficiaries of Bolsa Famíliathe current president rose from a voting intention of 57% in the first round at the end of May, to 62% in mid-June and now 68%. The son of former president Bolsonaro went from 25%, to 20% and now 13%.
In an alternative first-round configuration, the same pattern repeats. Lula has 42%, and Flávio has 35%. Caiado and Renan appear with 5%, while Zema has 3%. Barbosa scores 2%. Blanks, nulls and none are 5%. They don’t know or didn’t know how to answer, totaling 3%.
In addition to Flávio, the PT member would beat any of the names tested in a possible second round. Against Caiado, he appears with 47% to 39%. If Zema were the opponent, Lula would have 48% to 38% of Minas Gerais. In the case of Renan, the current president would score 48% to 36%.
In the spontaneous response, without the names of the pre-candidates being presented to the interviewees, Lula gathered 38%, followed by Flávio, with 27%. Then comes Renan, with 3%; Whitewashed, with 2%; and Zema, with 1%. Others add up to 3%. None, blanks and nulls are 6%. They don’t know or didn’t know how to answer 20%.
The interview field was carried out after two facts with potential impact on the election: the Federal Police operation against the then government leader in Senate Jacques Wagner (PT) and the video released by Michelle Bolsonaro with criticism of Flávio.
Regarding the operation, 27% said they knew it well and were following the news, while 18% had heard about it and knew what it was about and 30% said they had heard about it, but knew little. They hadn’t heard about it and didn’t know what 24% was about. 1% did not know or could not answer.
In the Northeast, where Wagner is a leader, Lula and Flávio’s voting intentions in the second round fluctuated within the margin of error, which for this segment is four points. The current president was 66% to 61%, while the senator ranged from 28% to 30%.
Variations in the margin of error also occur in other regions. The exception was in the South, where former president Bolsonaro’s son rose from 51% to 63%.
In terms of religion, a public in which Michelle displays political capital, there were no significant changes. Among evangelicals, for whom the margin is four points, Flávio fluctuated from 59% to 60%, while Lula varied from 34% to 32%.
In the group of Catholics, the senator scored 38%, compared to 40%, while the PT member scored the same 53%. The margin of error for these is three points.
Rejection
Lula and Flávio maintained their rejection levels compared to the last round. The PT member had 47% and now has 49%. The senator already registered 52% and today he has 51%. The leader in this criterion is Aécio. 60% wouldn’t vote for him at all.
Caiado appears with 38% rejection, and Zema, 39%. Barbosa scores 36%, and Renan has 34%. Daciolo records 45%, while Cury scores 33%.
Government assessment
The government’s assessment also remained stable. 42% consider President Lula’s management to be bad or terrible (before it was 41%), while 38% say it is excellent or good, the same percentage measured in the last survey. Those who rate the work as regular total 18%, compared to 21% in mid-June.
