The odds of El Niño developing are getting higher.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) upgraded its El Niño monitoring status from “watch” to “alert” on Wednesday, April 22, as forecasts showed a stronger likelihood of development during the June–August season.
During a press conference, PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said there is now about a 79 percent chance that El Niño will emerge during the June–July–August season.
An El Niño watch was issued on March 25, when PAGASA said El Niño conditions could develop within six months, or as early as July, after the probability reached at least 55 percent.
The upgrade reflects the increasing likelihood of the climate phenomenon developing in the coming months.
“It is important to clarify that the alert means that the possibility of the formation of an El Niño is higher. This means that conditions are already favorable and there is a strong likelihood that it will develop in the next two to three months,” Servando said.
He said this development has significant implications for weather patterns across the country, including below-normal rainfall in several areas, which may affect key sectors such as water resources, agriculture, energy supply, and public welfare.
“In light of these projections, the DOST-PAGASA is taking proactive steps to closely monitor evolving conditions and to provide timely and accurate advisories to guide national and local preparedness efforts. This is a critical stage where preparedness actions should already be intensified,” he said.
Servando said El Niño typically brings drier-than-normal conditions, including dry spells and drought in some parts of the country.
However, he noted that some areas may still experience strong rainfall during the southwest monsoon or habagat season.
“We know that if there is an El Niño, there is a high possibility of having drier than normal conditions that will have a negative effect such as droughts or dry spells in some parts of the country. However, we will experience strong rains in the lower parts of the country during the southwest monsoon or habagat season. PAGASA will continue to monitor the development of the El Niño phenomenon and will coordinate closely with all government agencies,” he said.
Sustained ocean warming
PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Analiza Solis said ocean conditions in the east-central equatorial Pacific have shown sustained warming of surface temperatures over the past two months.
She said current outlooks indicate the event could begin as a weak El Niño but may reach moderate to strong intensity.
“For now, nakikita natin it could start as a weak El Niño and pwede po siyang mag-reach at least moderate to strong El Niño (For now, it could start as a weak El Niño and may reach at least moderate to strong intensity),” she said, noting that moderate to strong events tend to have longer-lasting impacts than weak ones.
Solis added that the developing El Niño may persist until at least the first quarter of 2027, based on model projections.
She explained that PAGASA classifies El Niño strength based on sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean: weak (0.5°C to 0.9°C), moderate (1.0°C to 1.4°C), strong (1.5°C to 1.9°C), and very strong (2.0°C or higher).
Solis also clarified that “super El Niño” is not an official category used by PAGASA.
“So ibig sabihin po for now, still hindi nag-aagree ang lahat ng models whether it could reach a strong to very strong El Niño (For now, not all models agree on whether it could reach a strong to very strong El Niño),” she said.
Impact on Angat Dam
PAGASA hydrologist Richard Orendain said Angat Dam in Bulacan may experience declining water levels similar to what was observed during the 2023–2024 El Niño event, with impacts typically becoming more evident the following year.
“Yung impact ng El Niño noong 2023 and 2024, kung mapapansin natin, nabuo yung El Niño noong 2023 hanggang first week ng 2024. Yung impact niya is next year na, which is 2024. Kasi noong 2023 halos hindi gaano bumaba yung lebel ng Angat Dam (The impact of El Niño in 2023 and 2024, if we observe, the El Niño formed from 2023 up to the first week of 2024. Its impact was only felt the following year, which is 2024. In 2023, the water level of Angat Dam did not drop much),” he explained.
Orendain said a similar pattern may be seen in the current conditions, where dam levels could decline by next year if rainfall within the watershed remains insufficient during the northeast monsoon, or “amihan,” season.
Angat Dam is the main source of domestic water supply for Metro Manila.
Rainfall outlook for May–October
Solis said localized thunderstorms are expected to become more frequent toward late April to May as the country transitions into the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon or “habagat.”
In May, western Luzon may experience below-normal rainfall, receiving only 41 to 80 percent of average levels, while much of Luzon has a higher probability of below-normal conditions. Parts of Bicol, southern Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao may still experience near- to above-normal rainfall.
By June, rainfall is expected to increase in western sections of the country with the onset of the southwest monsoon, although some areas in Bicol, the Visayas, and Mindanao may still experience below-normal rainfall.
In July and August, the peak of the habagat season, above-normal rainfall is more likely over western Luzon, Mindoro, Palawan, and parts of the Visayas, while some areas in the Visayas and Mindanao may still see below-normal rainfall.
Solis said this uneven rainfall distribution may reflect the developing influence of El Niño, which can enhance rainfall in some monsoon-affected areas while reducing it in others.
By September, rainfall is expected to shift further, with higher chances of below-normal conditions in northern and central Luzon, while Bicol, the Visayas, and Mindanao may receive increased rainfall associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and possible tropical cyclones.
In October, there is more than a 60 percent probability of below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country as El Niño impacts potentially become more pronounced.
