Russian oil exports by sea, after declining for three weeks, increased by 22%. The situation was corrected by the restoration of shipments from Primorsk and Ust-Luga, but supplies from Novorossiysk remain paralyzed. Damage at ports due to the attacks led to a decline in previously booming demand for the transportation of Russian oil, which caused a correction in freight rates.
Russia increased seaborne oil exports on April 13–19 by 22% compared to the previous week, to 355 thousand tons per day, according to the Center for Price Indexes (PIC). Shipments rose for the first time after three weeks of decline. The number of tankers shipped increased from 20 to 24 vessels.
The main contribution to the restoration of supplies was made by the ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, where the daily level of exports over the week increased by 83.6%, to 184 thousand tons. The number of flights increased from 7 to 12 units. According to CCI estimates, 38% of Baltic supplies go to Turkey, 28% to India, 18% to Egypt and 8% to China. One Aframax tanker with a deadweight of 100 thousand tons is heading in an unknown direction. Shipments from Kozmino increased by 11.1%, to 143 thousand tons per day. Seven Aframax tankers are en route to China, two to India and one to Singapore.
Exports from Baltic ports are recovering from a decline caused by infrastructure damage due to UAV attacks. CCI analyst David Martirosyan notes that the volume of exports from Western ports in 2025 was 172–201 thousand tons per day.
NEFT Research Managing Partner Sergei Frolov believes that the oil company’s increase in shipments is stimulated by the desire to receive a geopolitical premium resulting from a shortage of raw materials and Asia’s search for alternatives to Middle Eastern oil. According to Argus, the discount on Urals to Dated Brent in the Baltic ports in the week of April 17 decreased by $1.4, to $23.7 per barrel (FOB), which is associated with the active interest of importers in the countries of the Indo-Pacific region and cheaper freight. The price of Urals on this basis decreased by $25.83, to $74.93 per barrel, due to the cheaper standard, analysts say.
From Novorossiysk, according to information from services tracking sea routes provided by the Center for Information Center, shipments of Russian oil were not recorded for the week. At the same time, four tankers with Kazakh CPC grade oil left the port. As David Martirosyan notes, market participants do not expect the resumption of supplies from Novorossiysk until the end of April.
Under these conditions, according to CCI forecasts, by the end of the month, seaborne exports of Russian oil will decrease to 310–360 thousand tons per day – the minimum level since 2023.
According to Reuters sources in the industry, in the face of reduced exports and unscheduled repairs at refineries, Russia may reduce production to 300–400 thousand barrels per day (b/d) in April versus 500–600 thousand b/d at the end of 2025. In its April review, the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its forecast for oil exports from Russia by the end of the year by 120 thousand bpd due to attacks on refineries and ports. IEA estimates the March supply volume at 9 million bpd. According to the agency, oil production in Russia in March increased by 3.3% compared to February, to 8.96 million bpd.
Market participants, according to CCI, note a drop in the rush demand for the transportation of Russian oil due to incidents related to the oil export infrastructure. Additionally, analysts highlight the presence of a tonnage surplus on the spot market, which led to a drop in freight rates. According to their data, the cost of transporting Russian oil by Aframax class vessels from the ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin for April 13–19 decreased by 7–14%, depending on the route. Rates decreased most noticeably in the direction of Turkey – by 13.6–14.3%, to $12.4–13.1 per barrel.
Sergei Frolov associates the decrease in the cost of transporting Russian oil with the suspension of military operations in the Persian Gulf and statements about the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz, which, among other things, led to cheaper shipping fuel.
Portfolio manager of Alfa Capital Management Company Dmitry Danilin adds that a significant further narrowing of freight rates is not expected. According to him, the cost of transportation supports the increase in transport leverage, the retirement of part of the fleet into shadow status and the fact that some ships are actually used as storage facilities.
According to David Martirosyan, the extension of the US license for the purchase of Russian oil may increase interest in raw materials from the Russian Federation “on the water”, which will likely lead to diversification of markets. On April 17, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued the third license since the outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East to purchase Russian oil and petroleum products loaded onto tankers before that date. Transactions are allowed until May 16. According to analysts, up to 40–50 million barrels of Russian oil and petroleum products may fall under the new license (see “Kommersant” dated April 20). The Center also notes, with reference to market participants, that after the issuance of the new license, the demand for transportation by vessels included in the SDN List has increased.
