MOSCOW, June 15. /TASS/. The United States continues to engage in efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict, while maintaining significant influence over both Kiev and European allies; the US and Iran signal readiness to reach a framework agreement to end hostilities; and the European Union has reached consensus on a 21st sanctions package against Russia. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
The United States remains willing and eager to participate in efforts to resolve the crisis, Ambassador-at-Large of the Russian Foreign Ministry Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. According to the diplomat, Washington still retains leverage over both Ukraine and Europe, and these instruments have not yet been fully utilized. On June 14, Vladimir Putin congratulated Donald Trump on his 80th birthday. Among the key topics discussed during the latest conversation between the two leaders were the Ukrainian crisis and a planned memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran.
“The United States is demonstrating a willingness and readiness to participate in resolving the crisis. It still possesses certain levers of influence over both Ukraine and Europe. These tools have not yet been fully used. If the United States truly exerts greater effort than it has so far, the situation at the negotiating table could change quite substantially,” Miroshnik told Izvestia.
“Europe is not interested in reaching an agreement with the participation of the United States and, in general, is not interested in an agreement between Russia and Ukraine. To claim that Europeans are not represented at the negotiating table is somewhat disingenuous. Attempts to bring in additional voices aimed at derailing negotiations can hardly be regarded as a constructive process,” he added.
The conversation between Putin and Trump shows that communication between the Russian and American sides is continuing and that negotiations on Ukraine have not stalled, Program Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Konstantin Sukhoverkhov told Izvestia.
“We can clearly see that the negotiation process on Ukraine is moving forward. The recent activity on the part of the Europeans, Zelensky’s open letter, and the fact that European diplomats recently visited our Ministry of Foreign Affairs all indicate that fairly active negotiations are, in fact, taking place,” he said.
Negotiations in the Russia-US-Ukraine format are currently paused, although Moscow and Kiev have maintained bilateral contacts with Washington. Donald Trump wants to see some form of peace document concluded in the near future, Yegor Toropov, American studies specialist and analyst at the Higher School of Economics, believes.
“Compared with the European NATO countries and Ukraine, the American side is interested in signing a peace document, but one that is more formal and declarative than substantive and long-term. This is necessary in order to show to voters ahead of the congressional elections that the White House is capable of playing the role of a peacemaker,” he told Izvestia.
Just days after an intense exchange of mutual strikes, the United States and Iran unexpectedly announced their readiness to conclude a framework agreement to halt hostilities, which would, among other provisions, include reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The first announcement came on June 13 from US President Donald Trump in a post on his Truth Social platform. Trump later stated that the new deal is expected to be signed on June 19. Experts interviewed by Vedomosti believe that both Washington and Tehran are motivated to avoid a renewed war and move toward a negotiated settlement, but the process remains vulnerable to disruption by Israel, which opposes a US-Iran agreement and could trigger a new regional escalation cycle.
According to Kamran Hasanov, Doctor of Political Science at the University of Salzburg, the United States has failed to achieve its objectives through military means, while further escalation is being restrained by the FIFA World Cup currently taking place in North America and congressional elections scheduled in a few months.
Despite sporadic outbreaks of violence, Washington and Tehran are seeking to avoid becoming drawn back into a war that threatens negative consequences for both countries, Research Fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations Alexey Yurk noted.
There also remains a risk that US-Iran negotiations could be derailed by Israel’s actions. Although Israel is not participating in the talks, it could potentially trigger a new regional escalation. Several Israeli officials, speaking anonymously to the Ynet news portal, said that the Israeli leadership is dissatisfied with the prospect of an agreement that, in their view, would lead to disaster.
According to one of the portal’s sources, “regardless of the agreement’s final form, the regional perception would be that it was achieved because of Iranian pressure and American concessions.” “At least in the short term, any agreement will be viewed as a failure,” the source said.
Israel is clearly not interested in the achievement of any US-Iran understandings, even those that are largely devoid of substantive content, Yurk believes. Israelis are dissatisfied with the failure to achieve the war’s objectives and will therefore attempt, through various provocations, primarily in Lebanon, to draw Iran into a new military confrontation, the political scientist added.
The EU has achieved a consensus on its 21st package of sanctions against Russia, Izvestia has reported. The EU Council could adopt the new sanctions package on June 15. A political decision to introduce the new restrictions has already been taken, and consensus has been achieved among all member states, sources in the European Parliament told the newspaper. The European Commission has unveiled proposals for the 21st package, stating that the new measures will target sectors with the “greatest impact,” including energy, trade, finance and, for the first time, fisheries. Experts, however, emphasize that the latest sanctions are unlikely to have a significant effect on the Russian economy, while European countries themselves could bear the main costs.
“The political decision has already been made, and there is consensus among all EU countries,” European Parliament member Thierry Mariani told Izvestia.
EU member states have generally supported the European Commission’s proposal for the 21st sanctions package. On June 10, the text began to be reviewed by the Committee of Permanent Representatives. An official EU source told Izvestia that the restrictions would be discussed at the “technical level” in the coming days. A meeting of the EU Foreign Affairs Council is scheduled to take place in Luxembourg on June 15.
“[Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor] Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico blocked the adoption of sanctions by instructing their foreign ministers accordingly,” Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) Ivan Timofeev told Izvestia.
Among the economic measures under consideration is a ban on transactions involving an additional 31 Russian banks. The EU also plans to freeze the assets of approximately 90 financial institutions and impose further restrictions on transactions involving more than 30 banks in Russia and third countries. The sanctions list is also expected to be expanded to include 20 banks, as well as cryptocurrency companies and financial platforms in third countries that help circumvent European sanctions.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia noted that while the new sanctions package could create difficulties for certain companies and banks, it does not pose a threat to Russia’s macroeconomic stability. Much of the package consists of symbolic measures, such as a ban on entry into the eurozone for individuals who have served in the Russian military since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine. Analysts believe that Russia could respond with reciprocal measures.
According to Stanislav Tkachenko, Professor at the Faculty of International Relations of St. Petersburg State University, the European Union risks encountering energy-related difficulties if it abandons Russian LNG amid limited pipeline gas supplies and the diversion of US energy shipments to other regions.
“If they truly implement these promises, they will be shooting themselves in the foot. Russia, meanwhile, will not experience any particularly serious negative consequences,” the expert told Izvestia.
Global investors are rapidly reducing their investments in gold, according to data from EPFR. In the past week alone, net outflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) totaled $2.3 bln. The price of gold fell below $4,100 per troy ounce for the first time in six months, losing 10.5% over less than a month. The main drivers behind the decline are expectations of higher US Federal Reserve interest rates amid strong macroeconomic data and accelerating commodity inflation, Kommersant writes. In turn, the Russian market remains influenced by its own domestic factors, as has often been the case in recent years.
Bloomberg data also indicate declining interest in gold among international investors. According to the latest available figures from the agency, total holdings of gold-backed ETFs fell by 6.8 metric tons on Friday, June 12, to 3,027.58 metric tons. Over the course of the week, holdings declined by 26.8 metric tons, while over four weeks they dropped by nearly 45 metric tons, marking the steepest decrease since March 2026.
“Good news for the economy has become bad news for gold: a strong labor market has virtually eliminated the possibility of near-term rate cuts,” said Ruslan Klyshko, Director of the Wealth Management Department at AF Capital Asset Management Company, told Kommersant.
Moreover, expectations for higher US interest rates continue to strengthen. According to CME Group’s FedWatch data, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December is now estimated at nearly 71%, compared with just 23.5% a month ago.
“Against the backdrop of a strong labor market and a new inflationary impulse driven by expensive oil, investors are no longer debating the timing of Federal Reserve rate cuts but rather the possibility of additional rate hikes,” investment banker Ilya Sushkov believes.
“The higher real interest rates become, and therefore bond yields relative to inflation, the less attractive gold is, since it does not generate coupon income,” independent financial and economic expert Alexey Leron explained.
Expectations of possible US rate increases are also affecting the dollar. Last week, the DXY index, which measures the dollar against six major world currencies, rose above the 100-point level for the first time in six weeks, gaining 0.7% over the week and more than 2% over the past four weeks.
Disruptions to aluminum supplies from the Middle East and rising demand are expected to support higher metal prices through the end of the year, analysts believe. According to their forecasts, aluminum prices will stabilize beginning in 2027 but will remain above the levels seen between 2021 and 2025. Meanwhile Rusal, which accounts for more than 5% of global aluminum production, does not expect to benefit significantly from elevated prices because of the strong ruble and increasing costs, Kommersant writes.
Analysts at Kept forecast that aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) will range between $3,300 and $3,700 per ton in the second through fourth quarters, depending on developments in the Middle East. Compared with the first quarter, this would represent an increase of 3% to 15%. As of June 12, the three-month aluminum contract on the LME was trading at $3,500 per ton.
According to a Kept report, aluminum prices entered a phase of strong growth, interrupted only by brief corrections in the middle of the first quarter, due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to facilities operated by key metal suppliers in the Middle East. These disruptions resulted in partial shutdowns or reduced production volumes. The region accounts for 8-9% of global primary aluminum production.
The resulting supply deficit cannot be offset by China, the world’s largest aluminum producer, because the country maintains a government-imposed production cap of 45 mln tons of aluminum per year, Kept analysts explained.
Natalya Velichko, Head of Metals and Mining Advisory Services at Kept, noted that supply growth is also constrained by the high energy intensity of aluminum production.
Boris Krasnozhenov, Head of Research at Alfa Bank, told Kommersant he expects aluminum to trade at $3,000-3,200 per ton over the medium term. According to him, China remains a net exporter of the metal and is capable of building a modern smelter with annual primary aluminum production capacity of 1 mln tons within 12-18 months. Therefore, a global aluminum shortage is unlikely in the foreseeable future, he said.
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