Since the end of January, no oil has flowed through the Družba pipeline to Slovakia and Hungary. After two months of tough exchanges between Robert Fico and Viktor Orbán on the one hand and Volodymyr Zelensky on the other, the oil should finally start flowing.
Photo: TASR/AP, Julia Demaree Nikhinson
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi.
Kiev promised long ago that the oil will still flow in February. He strained, postponed the deadlines, finally President Zelenskyi said that the pipeline would be repaired in a year, but then he turned around again and promised to restore supplies by the end of April. Everyone knew the reason: at the end of April, it was supposed to be after the Hungarian elections, and Tisza, headed by Péter Magyar, was supposed to win. That’s what happened. So there is nothing stopping the oil from flowing westward again. President Zelensky announced that the oil pipeline has been repaired.
They probably repaired the oil pipeline on an express basis, the Ukrainians moved on. This is not just an ironic remark, but a sad statement, because until today Kyiv has not provided any evidence of damage to the oil pipeline. Nothing can be seen on the surface from satellite images. The Ukrainians claim that the pipeline was damaged underground, but no EU experts were allowed to the scene.
In retaliation, Viktor Obrán stopped a loan to Ukraine in the amount of 90 billion euros from the EU. Union leaders were angry with Budapest, reprimanded Orbán, but did not demand any relevant evidence from Zelensky about the damage to the oil pipeline. In a society based on facts, which leaders and serious politicians had their mouths full of during covid, this should be a matter of course, but it wasn’t.
Arguments that Russian oil delivered through Ukraine must not be used to finance the bombing of our eastern neighbor are clearly correct from a moral point of view, but rather amusing in the real world of politics. If the Ukrainians had legitimate reservations, they could have strongly opposed the approval of an exception for oil supplies through the Druzhba until 2027 in the past. They did not do so.
What did the whole “war” for Družba actually lead to? Did she punish Putin, did she cause Orbán’s defeat? Neither. Zelenskyi just showed who is the boss here. EU leaders watched dutifully.
Logically, because Russian liquefied gas is delivered by ships to ports in Western Europe, and the contracts received the same exemption. In addition, Kazakh oil flows to Germany through the northern branch of the Druzhba from Russia through Belarus and Poland. Yes, through Russia. It was the Kremlin that announced that it would stop transporting Kazakh oil through the pipeline.
So much for European hypocrisy. But Zelensky and Brussels received another hard blow. The winner of the Hungarian elections, Péter Magyar, sent a clear message to Kyiv that the game is over, it’s time to resume supplies immediately. Otherwise, billions of euros will not go to Ukraine (Fico also joined in). Cold shower for everyone. If Orbán said that, there would be fire on the roof. Well, his oppressor Magyar said it, so Brussels is tactfully silent.
It was about Russian oil and the whims of Zelensky, who has been in office for two years without elections (a state of emergency applies to war), that Fico and Magyar talked about on the phone. Deputies of the Zelenský Servant of the Nation party even complain about two years of over-serving in the parliamentary benches and no prospect of calling new elections.
And there is another aspect – the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to the biggest energy crisis in history, according to the head of the International Energy Agency. Even in Kyiv, they should understand the seriousness of the situation. Sanctions or stopping the flow of oil to Slovakia and Hungary do not ruin the Russian economy. On the contrary, during the crisis in the Middle East, Moscow increases the export of oil and gas to Asia, especially to China (oil by more than 30%). Also because Washington suspended sanctions on Russian oil for another month. Sanctions obviously do not work anywhere, not only in Russia and Iran. Regimes survive, they don’t fall. This is what we should finally realize with the high-minded moralistic appeals in the post-colonial spirit in Europe.
What did the whole “war” for Družba actually lead to? Did she punish Putin, did she cause Orbán’s defeat? Neither. Volodymyr Zelenskyi just showed who is the boss here. EU leaders watched dutifully.
