BEIRUT – The U.S.-Iran agreement — the first signed by an American and an Iranian president since Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution — is being hailed by its backers as the deal of the century.
But for Tehran’s adversaries across the Middle East — from Israel to Gulf states and factions in Lebanon — it looks more like the curse of the century: an accord that could leave Iran more secure, more legitimate and ultimately more influential.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed the interim deal on Wednesday, ending a three-month war. Trump chose to formalize it at Versailles, on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit — a setting widely seen as symbolic of the remaking of international order after conflict.
The 14-point agreement extends a ceasefire by 60 days, including in Lebanon, to allow negotiations on a permanent settlement and address issues such as Iran’s nuclear program.
“For Washington and Tehran, this is a grand bargain — the deal of the century, with no turning back,” said Lebanese commentator Sarkis Naoum. “The probability of success outweighs the risk of failure. Iran cannot endure further economic pain under sanctions, and Trump has no incentive to start a new war.”
Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz described the agreement as a strategic “catastrophe.“ What had been framed as a joint U.S.-Israeli campaign to weaken, or even topple the Islamic Republic has, in his view, flipped into American recognition of Iran.
“We went to topple the regime with U.S. backing and ended with Washington effectively giving legitimacy and strengthening the same regime we wanted to bring down,” said Citrinowicz, a senior Iran researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.
He says the deal delivers none of Israel’s core demands: no curbs on Iran’s missile program or proxies and no clear path to dismantling its nuclear facilities. Even Israel’s campaign in Lebanon has been constrained by the ceasefire framework imposed at Iran’s insistence.
The fallout is both political and strategic. The deal undercuts Netanyahu’s narrative on Iran and exposes the limits of his leverage with a U.S. president seen as closely aligned with Israel.
Citrinowicz says Iran has gained room to maneuver, and the deal risks entrenching its position while deepening Israel’s isolation.
“Everything is bad,” he said bluntly. “And it’s only going to get worse.”
If the agreement holds, Iran appears to secure the stronger outcome: an end to the war, phased sanctions relief, renewed oil exports and the prospect of vast reconstruction funds — alongside implicit acceptance of its political system.
Washington, by contrast, falls short of goals it shared with Israel: toppling the clerical establishment, dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and curbing its regional reach. Rather than…
