But the Iranian matter is far from over; the Americans now face difficult negotiations with Tehran. And Russia’s position is actually being strengthened again by the latest developments. The Iranian regime that survived is a key ally of Putin.
It is also true that Trump’s Ukrainian efforts were already deadlocked before the attack on Iran. The ideas between Kyiv and Moscow are still too far apart today. However, the balance of power has shifted in recent months. By striking deep into the Russian hinterland, Ukraine can now put pressure on the attackers much more effectively than at the beginning of the war. Russia’s economic situation is also deteriorating.
Trump’s changing tone
Chancellor Merz believes that this is why could “slowly open a window for diplomacy”.. Trump also advises the Russians, citing their enormous losses (including those of Ukraine) to an agreementand he holds out the prospect of reinstating sanctions. This is a slightly different tone from the president, but one shouldn’t pay too much attention to it. After the next phone call with Putin, he could talk differently again.
The Western strategy, if one still exists with Trump, is to increase the costs for Putin so that he eventually gives up. There are hardly any external signs of this so far. The Kremlin continues to take maximum positions and is playing its old tactical games when it comes to the question of negotiators and venues.
But that doesn’t have to mean much either. For the first time in this war, which has lasted longer than the First World War, time is against Putin, not for him.
