China’s grain output is expected to inch up in 2026, while imports of several major agricultural products, particularly soybeans, are projected to decline for the first time in recent years, according to a new agricultural outlook report released on Monday.
The China Agricultural Outlook (2026-35) report forecasts that the country’s grain production will reach 716 million metric tons in 2026, up 0.2 percent year-on-year, while output of oil crops is expected to rise 2.6 percent to 42.04 million tons.
According to the report, continued improvements in crop yields are expected to boost grain production. This year, the average grain yield is projected to reach about 6,000 kilograms per hectare.
“Large-scale improvements in crop productivity will continue to support a stable grain supply,” said Xu Shiwei, head of the key laboratory of agricultural monitoring and early warning technology at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
Imports of several commodities are projected to decline, while exports of competitive farm products are expected to continue growing. “Soybean imports will fall 6.1 percent from the previous year, marking the first decline in recent years,” Xu said.
Pork imports are projected to drop 8.2 percent, while dairy imports are expected to decrease 4.1 percent, according to the report.
China’s exports of products such as vegetables and fruits are expected to expand. The report forecasts an export growth rate of 6.4 percent for vegetables and 5 percent for fruits in 2026.
Despite the projected decline in some imports, the report emphasized that international markets remain an important complement to China’s agricultural supply, as imports of certain products, such as poultry, are expected to rise.
Li Ganqiong, head of the agricultural monitoring and early-warning research center at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said rising geopolitical risks — including conflict in the Middle East — have pushed up global oil prices, fertilizer costs and shipping expenses, increasing uncertainty in global agricultural production and trade.
“These factors could heighten risks to global food security,” Li said, adding that strengthening domestic agricultural production remains crucial to coping with external uncertainties.
Over the longer term, the report projects that China’s grain output will continue to climb steadily, reaching 733 million tons by 2030 and 753 million tons by 2035. Over the next decade, grain yield per hectare is expected to increase 6.3 percent.
Grain consumption is forecast to grow slowly before peaking at 842 million tons around 2032, after which it will stabilize and gradually decline, the report said.
As agricultural productivity improves and international competitiveness strengthens, China’s reliance on imports of major agricultural commodities is expected to decline, Xu said.
Total grain imports are projected to fall to 115 million tons by 2035, a 25.5 percent drop from the average between 2023 and 2025. Soybean imports are expected to decrease to 82.55 million tons, down 21.5 percent.
The dairy industry is also expected to expand steadily, with milk production projected to reach 45.07 million tons by 2030 and 51.17 million tons by 2035, growing at an average annual rate of 2 percent.
There will be rising demand for fresh milk and increasing use of cheese and butter in beverages and baked goods, according to the report.
In addition, pork production is expected to decline gradually over the next decade as the sector shifts from rapid expansion toward higher-quality and more efficient development.
Pork output is projected to reach 55.11 million tons by 2035, down about 0.5 percent annually on average.
The report, compiled by the agricultural market analysis and early-warning team under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, was first launched in 2014 and has become a key platform for assessing the country’s agricultural trends and improving market forecasting and policy planning, the ministry said.
