From April, in light of the first forecasts relating to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) systemthe DGM had also delivered an initial analysis of its potential effects on the Morocco. This already underlined that the climatic variations observed in the country cannot be explained by El Niño alone.
Regarding the precipitationavailable scientific studies show that the relationship between El Niño and the rains in Morocco remains weak and not very decisive. The winter climate of the Kingdom depends above all on other atmospheric mechanisms, in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and meteorological circulations specific to the Mediterranean basin.
If certain phases of El Niño have sometimes coincided with a drop in spring precipitation in certain arid or semi-arid regions of the south of the country, this correlation remains variable and does not allow a general rule to be established. Recent experience also illustrates this complexity: between 2020 and 2024, the Morocco experienced several marked episodes of drought while La Nina conditions dominated on a global scale. An observation which shows that the automatic association between El Niño And droughtor between La Nina and rainy years, does not reflect the climatic reality of the Kingdom.
The influence of the phenomenon on temperatures appears equally nuanced. In a context of global warming particularly marked in the Mediterranean region, episodes of extreme heat observed in Morocco can be explained above all by regional mechanisms. Specialists cite in particular the rise of hot Saharan air, situations of atmospheric blocking or even the phenomenon of “chergui”.
The example of summer 2023 is revealing. Although this period coincided with the return of El Niño on a global scale, the absolute temperature record recorded at Agadirwith 50.4°C on August 11, was mainly caused by the arrival of very hot and dry air from the Sahara, amplified by the crossing of the Atlas reliefs.
For the meteorologiststhe intrusions of Saharan air masses and regional atmospheric configurations therefore remain the main factors causing the heat waves which regularly affect the Morocco. El Niño may potentially contribute to an increase in the global thermal background, but it is not the main driver of the extreme episodes observed in the country.
Even if its influence remains secondary, monitoring the evolution of El Niño remains essential for several sectors sensitive to climatic hazardsnotably agriculture, water resources and livestock. The Directorate General of Meteorology continues to monitor global and regional climate phenomena, relying on the most recent forecast models including changes in ocean surface temperatures.
As part of the international initiative “Early warning for all” Supported by the WMO, the DGM also continues to strengthen its climate monitoring and early warning systems in order to support economic players and populations facing the risks linked to climate change.
Ultimately, if the return of El Niño deserves particular attention on a global scale, its consequences on the Morocco should not be overestimated. For experts, the Kingdom’s weather conditions will continue to be dictated above all by the regional atmospheric mechanisms that shape its climate.
