MOSCOW, May 25. /TASS/. Russia expects Europe to recognize the Ukrainian army’s crimes; participants in the NPT Review Conference fail to reach a consensus; and a US-Iran memorandum is unlikely to bring an end to the Middle East conflict. These stories topped Monday’s newspaper headlines across Russia.
The West has chosen to ignore the horrific aftermath of the Ukrainian army’s attack on a college in the city of Starobelsk, which killed 21 people, most of them teenagers. Western representatives in the United Nations Security Council questioned Russia’s assessment of the terrorist attack, while major media outlets covered it with caution, Izvestia notes.
Europe is actually guided by the principle that Ukraine “is allowed to do whatever it wants,” and it is the West’s tacit approval that has become one of the drivers behind recent Ukrainian strikes on civilian facilities, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s ambassador-at-large in charge of overseeing the Kiev regime’s crimes, told the newspaper. “The question is whether international humanitarian law enshrined in the Geneva conventions, additional protocols and a whole number of other conventions can be swept under the rug or must be respected by everyone. If it applies to all, then Europe will have to recognize that Kiev has indeed committed such crimes,” the diplomat pointed out.
Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government, noted that even though Western media outlets claim to be neutral, most of them have sided with one party to the Ukraine conflict.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s retaliation against the Starobelsk terrorist attack has drawn increased media attention, Izvestia writes. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, strikes targeting Ukraine’s military command facilities, airbases, and defense industry sites involved Oreshnik, Iskander, Kinzhal and Tsirkon missiles. Such a wide range of weapons, including hypersonic missiles, were used simultaneously for the first time since the start of Russia’s special military operation.
This time, it wasn’t a single Oreshnik missile that Russia launched but a large number of them, military expert Vasily Dandykin noted. In the expert’s view, Ukrainian command centers of such a high level were attacked for the first time ever. “We target military facilities in order to undermine the combat readiness of the Ukrainian armed forces. The use of such a wide range of weapons makes it clear that these inhuman attacks against civilians – and children at that – were the last straw that broke the camel’s back,” said Andrey Koshkin, an expert with the Association of Military Political Scientists.
Media: Participants in NPT Review Conference fail to reach consensus
Participants in the recent Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) were unable to reach a consensus, Vedomosti reports.
Still, it would be wrong to talk about the event’s failure or a complete lack of results, Kseniya Mineyeva, leading expert at the Primakov Center, said. The very fact that in the current conditions, countries sought to find common ground on the three pillars of the NPT – disarmament, non-proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy – is significant.
According to Valdai International Discussion Club expert Andrey Kortunov, the NPT Review Conference used to be seen as a mechanism to reach a consensus on issues related to nuclear non-proliferation, but now, it’s just a platform for exchanging opinions. The operation of control mechanisms largely depends on a consensus between the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.
“Countries have differing views on how the NPT is implemented but the key thing is that no one raised questions about whether it was necessary. This is extremely important because we have recently – especially after the US-Israeli attack on Iran – seen an increased interest in nuclear weapons around the world, which is regarded as the only guarantee against external aggression,” Vladimir Orlov, PIR Center director and Moscow State Institute of International Relations professor, told Kommersant.
“As far as Russia’s national interests are concerned, the lack of a document is better than a statement consisting of politicized assessments and unilateral decisions imposed on everyone, which don’t take into account the interests of all participants in the process,” said Viktoria Karsliyeva, executive director of the Primakov Center, the only Russian non-governmental organization that hosted an event on the sidelines of the conference. “The lack of a final document does not mean a crisis of the non-proliferation regime as no one plans to withdraw from the NPT and the treaty remains fully in effect, while the parties can continue to search for mutually acceptable solutions in other formats,” the expert concluded.
Washington and Tehran are close to agreeing on a memorandum that could extend the existing ceasefire for another 60 days. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that chances for a temporary agreement are high but it will not fully resolve the conflict as disagreements persist on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions and security guarantees.
Against all odds, the likelihood of an agreement is quite high, Murad Sadygzade, president of the Center for Middle East Research and visiting lecturer at the Higher School of Economics’ Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs, believes. “There will be some temporary framework agreement – a memorandum of understanding – that will make it possible to ease the current tensions and continue working. However, I don’t yet believe in a long-term solution to the conflict,” he pointed out.
There is presently no reason to expect a full settlement, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, agrees. In his opinion, the main disagreements between the parties are still there, which primarily concern Iran’s nuclear program.
Tehran’s distrust of Washington is the key issue in the current situation. A nuclear deal was signed under Barack Obama in 2015 but in 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the US from the agreement. According to Bocharov, the move undermined Iran’s trust not only in negotiations but also in any long-term security guarantees. Tehran believes that agreements reached with Washington can be revised, while military pressure can resume even after an agreement is signed. Besides, the new Iranian authorities are less inclined to make concessions. Tehran has now seen that instruments of military pressure can be very effective, especially if they affect US allies in the region. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on infrastructure facilities in the Gulf countries have reinforced Iran’s confidence in its ability to influence the global economy.
That said, even the signing of a memorandum would not prevent the renewal of a hot phase of the conflict. The parties could take advantage of a pause to hold talks, while preparing for another round of confrontation.
International investors have poured the largest amount of money into bond funds since June 2020. They are taking advantage of high dollar rates, hoping for an early end to the conflict in the Middle East and lower inflation risks, Kommersant writes.
Given the current foreign currency yields, many institutional investors have once again come to see long-term government bonds as a viable alternative to stocks in terms of the risk-reward ratio, investment banker Ilya Sushkov noted. That said, investors are seeking to secure the current high yields in hope for a further decline in the geopolitical premium amid a ceasefire in the Middle East, which has been in effect for a month and a half.
“The cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran is seen by the market as a signal indicating that the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is a temporary issue and that the inflation shock will subside as oil supplies recover, making it possible for global central banks to once again cut key rates,” Alexander Kovalyov, head of global markets at General Invest, pointed out.
Investors are also still interested in higher-risk funds focused on developing country markets. “Global investors remain willing to accept moderate risk for higher yield, especially if a scenario of deep recession is not realized,” Sushkov emphasized.
The situation on the market will depend on the durability of the Middle East ceasefire, oil prices and the US inflation rate, as well as on the US Federal Reserve’s rhetoric. “If Brent crude prices remain below extreme levels and inflation continues to slow, demand for bonds may persist,” Sushkov believes.
However, another round of the conflict in the Middle East or tough signals from the Federal Reserve could quickly restore pressure on the debt market and cause a sell-off, particularly with regard to less reliable bonds, the expert concluded.
The average price of Russian gas exports is expected to rise by 11% compared to last year, Vedomosti reports, citing a Price Index Center review based on a consensus forecast from Russian think tanks.
The review points to the conflict in the Middle East as the reason for a major reassessment of analyst estimates. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, caused by the conflict, has pushed up prices of oil and oil products, along with gas prices on the global market. The escalating conflict also led to a revision of export forecasts for Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). According to the consensus forecast, LNG exports will increase by 12% compared to last year.
However, Maria Belova, research director at the Implementa company, notes that the majority of industry experts do not expect the Middle East factor to develop into a long-term “systemic shock.”
China accounts for more than half of Russian gas exports to countries other than post-Soviet nations, and gas prices are linked to oil, but with some delay, Finam Analyst Sergey Kaufman notes. According to him, the Middle East conflict’s impact on the price of gas exports to China will become clear towards the end of the year. Kaufman points out that even if the conflict in the Middle East ends soon, the global LNG market will remain in shortfall in 2026.
The duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade and the volume of the LNG deficit will be the key factors determining global gas prices this year, experts say. Other important factors will include the summer demand for gas in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, said Belova and Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Russian Government.
TASS is not responsible for the material quoted in these press reviews
