As the Middle East war stretches past the six-week mark and fuel prices have more than doubled, costs are starting to be passed onto consumers. One industry seeing the swift impacts of this is about to hit peak season: air travel.
Flying was already getting more expensive due to inflation. Now, something else is happening — it’s getting less predictable.
The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, is painting a sobering picture of the global repercussions of what he called “the largest energy crisis we have ever faced,” stemming from the pinch-off of oil, gas and other vital supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
In fact, Europe has “maybe six weeks or so [of] jet fuel left,” Birol said Thursday, warning of possible flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain blocked by the Iran war.
CBC News spoke with five experts about what might happen to the cost of air travel in the coming months.
“We haven’t seen nothing yet,” said John Gradek, a faculty lecturer on aviation management at McGill University in Montreal.
Gradek echoed Birol’s statements, calling it the “worst crisis we’ve had in aviation, ever,” arguing it surpasses both 9/11 and COVID-19 because, with those, “there was never an issue with supply.”
“And without fuel, you can’t fly,” Gradek added, noting that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, refining capacity in the region has been hit, with one critical facility that could take years to fix.
“It’s a mad world,” said Max Johnson, a Winnipeg-based tourism consultant who owned a travel company for 35 years. “Which goes to the point of: Should we plan? And I think the answer to this is absolutely.”
Are flights getting more expensive?
Data shows air fares were already going up, rising eight per cent for international flights from January 2025 to March 2026 while domestic fares rose nearly 14 per cent in the same period, according to statistics compiled by Flight Centre Canada, a retail travel agency network.
“Part of that is strong demand,” said Amra Durakovic, the company’s head of communications.
Canadians have continued to travel despite rising costs, Durakovic said, but are beginning to adjust some of their behaviour, either booking flights as much as six months in advance to lock in current prices — while others are waiting.
They are “hoping that prices will come down, which to be honest is a bit risky right now in this current landscape.”
As the war in the Middle East continues, the increase in gas prices is being felt at the pumps — and now it’s starting to affect air travel. As CBC’s Dale Manucdoc explains, several airlines are adding surcharges to certain bookings.
Will prices come back down?
The short answer is probably not. Airlines are dealing with rising jet fuel costs two main ways. Some are adding fuel surcharges of up to $60 to tickets and others are incorporating fuel costs into base fares.
Surcharges are a way of retailers to pass swiftly rising costs onto consumers without upping prices. But several North American airlines have indicated they are adjusting fares based on demand and rising costs.
“When that happens, the odds of those fares coming back down when the price of oil … comes back to normal levels are slim to none,” said Gradek of McGill University.
Fuel, typically airlines’ second largest cost after labour, accounts for about 27 per cent of operating expenses, according to Reuters. Prices have more than doubled since the conflict began, far outpacing a roughly 50 per cent rise in crude prices before the ceasefire.
But Gradek says it’s not the cost of fuel that worries airlines: It’s the supply of it.
“The incoming tsunami is going to be availability of product,” Gradek said. “Carriers will cancel flights and it just cascades from there.”
Once airlines begin parking planes, he said that could lead to layoffs, which would lead to fewer available seats, a rise in unsatisfied demand and therefore a significant increase in prices.
Both Gradek and Durakovic say they doubt Canada temporarily removing the four cent per litre excise tax on aviation fuel — as announced by Prime Minister Mark Carney on Wednesday — will have any effect because of how volatile the situation is.
Should I book now or wait?
The experts we spoke with were pretty unanimous: Booking now is safer than waiting, they said.
“We live in a world with turbulence that we’ve never seen before,” said Johnson.
“The only thing you can do is base a decision on now — not what we may think is going to happen next week, next month, next quarter. It may get better, it may get worse, we have no idea. But if you’re comfortable with the price, with the availability that you see now, book it and buy it.”
Fred Lazar, an associate economics professor at York University in Toronto, says airfare increases are likely to ripple forward over time. For every additional couple of weeks that fuel prices stay high, travellers can expect roughly another month of more expensive fares.
That means if current conditions persist, price hikes will keep extending into the later summer months, making it safer to book now for travel later in the season.
Lazar called the speed at which aviation fuel costs have increased “unprecedented.”
Are flights getting cancelled?
West Jet announced earlier this month it would be consolidating flights on several lower-demand routes, reducing its capacity by one per cent in April and three per cent in May.
“Those are flights being cancelled,” says Gradek. Most Canadian airlines rely on fuel from Canada, meaning they don’t have to worry as much about supply, but they are still feeling the rise in costs as oil price increases are global.
European and Asian airlines are the ones facing supply issues. German-based airline Lufthansa said this week grounding planes “may be unavoidable” as kerosene availability is already critical at some airports, particularly in Asia.
Oil and gas prices continue to rise as the U.S. and Israel-Iran war continues. As the CBC’s Tristan Mottershead reports, while gas pumps are emptying Albertans’ wallets, the situation is having an impact on air travel as well.
In South Korea, low-cost carrier T’way Air said it plans to furlough some cabin crew without pay in May and June, according to a local report, making it among the first carriers to reduce staffing.
In Canada, airlines are legally required to get you to your destination within a certain time of the flight you booked. If your flight gets cancelled, you’ll be put on a different one, which could include a connection or even be through another carrier.
Johnson says airlines may start cutting or rerouting flights to parts of Eastern and Central Europe where jet fuel is harder to access, shifting passengers onto connections through major hubs like Frankfurt or Munich instead.
Are some destinations cheaper than others?
Yes — and flexibility matters more than ever, according to Durakovic.
Travelling off-season can make a significant difference. For example, Europe in peak summer tends to be expensive, while destinations in South America may offer better value at that time of year.
Many Canadian airlines have announced plans to either increase fares or add a surcharge to try and offset the rising cost of fuel.
Long-haul routes, particularly to parts of Asia and Europe, may be more volatile due to fuel costs and supply issues, which can make pricing less predictable.
Durakovic said Flight Centre has seen a rise in demand for the Canadian East Coast and destinations in Alberta, such as Banff, which she believes may be due to a reduction in travel to the U.S. from Canada in response to the U.S. trade war.
Could my ticket get more expensive after I book?
Gradek says it’s extremely rare for airlines to add new charges after a ticket is purchased. In an extreme scenario, such as severe fuel shock, Gradek and others say European airlines could be forced to cancel large numbers of flights, invoking “force majeure,” and potentially cancelling the original contract and reimbursing passengers or requiring them to rebook at a new price, he said.
Johnson says while he’s never seen that happen either, he wouldn’t be surprised if it did in the coming months.
“These are just such brand new circumstances that I would say all bets are off,” he said.
While flights can be cancelled in extraordinary circumstances, passenger advocates say Canadian rules require airlines to rebook passengers — including on other carriers if needed — without charging a new fare.
