At approximately ten o’clock at night local time, Israeli Channel 14 quoted sources as saying that the commander of the Revolutionary Guard Ahmed Wahidi He is the one who has the final say on any agreement with the Americans, and he has agreed not to stand in the way of the agreement, despite not explicitly supporting it.
He sees its strategic value in easing sanctions and increasing oil exportsmystification. The report appears to have been correct. But the point of contention arises elsewhere, according to the same channel: While the political leadership views the agreement as a path to economic stability, Vahidi believes that Iran can take the money without giving up… Nuclear programme.
He may not be wrong after all.
The Revolutionary Guard and the transitional period
The Revolutionary Guards realized that the US President was appeasement Donald Trump It has become much greater than any inclination he has to renew the war. This gave Iran a large margin of maneuver. If the war is behind Trump, why continue the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, deprive Iran of funds, and risk damage to oil wells? Oil Due to the long lockdown?
Ahmed Wahidi when he was Minister of Interior, 2024. (AP)
In other words, the two-month period allocated to discussing nuclear technical details is a transitional period during which America prepares to turn the page on the war. Trump can claim he will strike back Iran “With unprecedented force,” or any of his favorite exaggerated phrases, if the agreement fails. But this possibility has become slim. The greatest possibility if the negotiation falters is to extend its timetable, which is another confirmation of avoiding the option of returning to military action. Meanwhile, Iran will return to selling its oil and earning about $400 million a day. This is without talking about the possibility of obtaining about $25 billion in frozen funds, as Iranian officials said.
What if the Revolutionary Guard angers Donald Trump?
After consuming the negotiation period Nuclear fileTrump will have lost a lot of time and patience to be willing to resume the war, in parallel with entering US phase Midterm elections. Most likely, Trump will be satisfied with what his negotiators with Iran will reach. Until then, Trump will have shifted his focus to other files that he believes will be easier to manage, e.g Cuba. But what if Iran besieges Trump diplomatically?
Cargo ships and oil tankers anchored in the Strait of Hormuz, May 4, 2026. (AP)
Trump probably won’t have many options. Iran will again threaten with a closure Strait of HormuzThe US administration will threaten to impose… Siege upon siege. This scenario will put the game back at square one. Trump will have to wait more time for the new blockade to take effect, since Iran will be in a stronger position due to its oil trade.
Sensitive points for the Revolutionary Guard
All of this does not mean that the situation in Iran is easy. There are reports of internal disagreements regarding the way the negotiation was conducted. These differences may escalate in the coming period if Vahidi continues to be strict in not making nuclear concessions. There are sensitive points for the Revolutionary Guards: Will Iran make a verbal concession by emphasizing not to develop or purchase a nuclear weapon? The Guard may prefer to keep the issue within the framework of “strategic ambiguity.” Will Iran give up “the right to nuclear enrichment for peaceful purposes”? This point is more problematic.
Certainly that Revolutionary Guard He wins the points game with Trump, thanks to his fluctuations. But maintaining those points is also difficult.
