The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that heavy military equipment will not participate in the May 9 parade on Red Square this year. According to analysts Shuhrat Rasul and Oibek Sirojov, Ukraine’s recent progress in using combat drones has forced Moscow to do so. In recent months, there has been a sharp increase in the number of drone attacks across Russia.
Fame Rasul: I don’t think this decision was due to a lack of resources. Armored vehicle manufacturing enterprises in Russia work in two or three shifts. It was possible to bring 100 armored personnel carriers, 20-30 tanks, as well as self-propelled artillery and anti-aircraft systems from the front for the parade.
I think the issue is a bit different. Since the beginning of 2026, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian territory have changed significantly, both in terms of quality and distance. Ukrainian army drones are now able to strike at a distance of more than 2,000 kilometers.
If the number of attacks on the oil industry was about 60 last year, more than 70 such attacks were recorded in the first quarter of this year. That is, compared to last year, the scale of damage and the depth of blows have increased. This factor may have made the parade organizers seriously think.
Imagine if several Ukrainian drones appeared over the Kremlin during a live-streamed parade. If heavy military equipment is damaged or destroyed in such a situation, it can have serious negative consequences both for the Russian army and for the image of the state on a global scale. In my opinion, the main precaution is related to this danger.
Oybek Sirojov: Due to the expansion of the capabilities of drones and missile strikes in wartime conditions, as well as their increased range and accuracy, the need for increased precautions has arisen. Even a few days ago, the issue of whether to hold a parade or not was on the agenda. Now, according to available information, it is confirmed that the parade will be held, but there is a high probability that it will be held without heavy military equipment.
In general, this parade has been held regularly for the past 30 years and has become an important ideological and symbolic element of the political system under the leadership of Putin. Therefore, not passing it could have a serious negative impact on the image of the regime. However, even holding the parade in full format would have a negative impact on Russia’s reputation if there were serious security threats. Taking these factors into account, the option of holding a parade without equipment may be chosen for now.
You can watch the full interview on YouTube channel “Geosiyosat | Kun.uz”.
