MANILA, Philippines — The House committee on justice, which found that the complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte have probable cause, is expected today to “formally adopt” its report containing the articles of impeachment and send the charges to the plenary for debate by the 318-member chamber.
“This committee has completed its constitutional duty to determine probable cause based on the evidence presented,” the chamber’s justice panel chair Batangas Rep. Gerville Luistro said in a statement on Sunday.
Last week, 53 lawmakers unanimously voted that charges leveled against Duterte were backed by sufficient evidence, based on documents and testimonies presented in a series of hearings over the past month.
READ: Sara Duterte impeachment raps to go to House floor on May 4 — Luistro
‘Political realignments’
“We are dealing with official records—not opinions, not speculation,” Luistro said. “These are numbers, documents, and sworn testimonies that, taken together, establish a pattern that demands accountability.”
The House will likely back the articles of impeachment against Duterte as the evidence presented during the proceedings has strengthened the case, political analysts said on Sunday.
But they also pointed out it remains to be seen whether the House can muster votes comparable to the level of support in last year’s impeachment drive against Duterte, who has emerged as a leading presidential contender, they said.
“The minimum threshold is achievable, but getting the same number as before may be challenging, given many factors such as a different House leadership and political realignments,” Ederson Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said.
Last year, 215 of 306 House members voted to impeach Duterte, marking the first time a vice president was impeached by the House. But the Supreme Court later ruled the process was unconstitutional and violated the one-year ban on filing impeachment complaints.
‘Popular national figure’
At least 106 lawmakers must back the new complaints before they can be transmitted to the Senate, which will sit as an impeachment court. A conviction could remove Duterte from office and forbid her from holding an elected post again.
Arjan Aguirre, an assistant professor of political science at Ateneo de Manila University, said some lawmakers may be weighing the repercussions of supporting the impeachment bid since Duterte has emerged as a popular contender in the 2028 presidential election.
“Some are likely weighing the political risks of opposing a popular national figure against a growing body of evidence that gives the accusations greater weight,” Aguirre said. “It’s a difficult calculus.”
Tapia said the House, led by Speaker Faustino Dy III, must consolidate political support to easily secure the votes needed to advance the impeachment charges against Duterte.
“The House tends to move once a certain level of political alignment is reached,” he said. “What we are seeing now is not just a question of counting votes, but of consolidation.”
“Members will step forward when they feel it is both politically viable and institutionally defensible to do so,” he added.
But gathering support for Duterte’s impeachment might be easier now that evidence backing the accusations against her have been presented, according to Aguirre.
‘Damning evidence’
“The committee hearings—along with new witnesses and documentary evidence—have clarified the issues and strengthened the political narrative against her,” said Aguirre. “Her absence has also mattered; without a direct rebuttal, many claims have gone uncontested.”
Witness testimonies and financial records presented in April have bolstered the accusations of wrongdoing against Duterte, including sworn statements from a former campaign supporter who claimed that he served as her “bagman” who delivered bags of cash to several recipients to return favors.
The justice body also received reports from the Commission on Audit, which flagged Duterte’s confidential funds spending as vice president and as education secretary, a post she held from 2022 to 2024.
The committee was also shown a report of bank transactions showing billions of pesos flowing through her accounts that did not match her annual declared wealth.
“The evidence seems damning and provides sufficient basis to hold Sara Duterte accountable,” Joy Aceron, convener-director of transparency group Government Watch, said.
She said Duterte’s stint as education secretary exposed “questionable transactions and decisions” that ultimately could be seen as one of the strongest grounds for her impeachment.
“It is important that Sara Duterte doesn’t get away from her abuses—that she gets impeached,” said Aceron. “But how do we also make sure that she doesn’t get to use this to get elected in 2028?”
Koko’s advice
Former Senate President Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel III, meanwhile, advised former colleagues to speed up the impeachment trial and follow their conscience.
“They know that it is their obligation to judge the impeached official whether or not the evidence presented by the House prosecutors are sufficient. If it’s sufficient, then say the official is guilty. If not sufficient, acquit, in fairness to the impeached official,” Pimentel said in an interview with radio dzBB on Sunday.
“My advice […] is to speed this up so that the people would know what their decisions are as senator-judges […] When they run as senators, they know their responsibilities. They also know the gravity of their decisions … you cannot please everybody but you have to make a decision,” he added.
When the first articles of impeachment against Duterte were transmitted to the Senate on Feb. 5, 2005, Pimentel, who was then Senate minority leader, urged then Senate President Francis Escudero to start the impeachment trial without delay.
Escudero, however, rebuffed calls for him to immediately constitute the Senate into an impeachment court, maintaining that there was no reason to expedite the trial while Congress was in recess.—WITH A REPORT FROM TINA G. SANTOS
